基于水足迹的滇池流域产业发展环境影响与调控机制

The theory of 'water footprint' is introduced to this research in order to solve the contradiction between the economical development and resource as well as environment in the lake watershed. The Dianchi Lake is taken as a typical case study area. The environmental stresses and impacts of industrial developments in the watershed are explored, analyzed and regulated through systematic research. Some new concepts are extended, including direct water footprint, total water footprint, grey water footprint of industrial departments in this watershed. Through building the mixed input-output table comprising the water footprint assessment, different industrial departments' water footprints are analyzed. Based on the Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) theory, the Eco-indicator 99 methodology is adopted, the environmental impacts of these industrial departments' water footprints are quantitatively assessed. Then the core driving impact factors are distinguished and confirmed. Coupling input output model and multi-objective model, taking the industrial departments' water footprints as the measurements of their water resources' consumptions and pollutions, an interconnected model is built to control the whole system. This model could express the entire process: (1) industrial development in the watershed, (2) water resources consumptions (total water footprint), (3) water pollution loads (grey water footprint), (4) environmental impact analysis, (5) the carrying capacity constraints of the water body, (6) systematic regulation. With the aid of the model, the industrial developments in the Dianchi Lake would be optimized and regulated. This research would be an example for inland other lakes, providing the optimization management and mechanism analyzing methodology in similar researches.

为协调湖泊流域经济发展与资源环境间的矛盾冲突，引入水足迹的相关理论，以滇池流域为典型对象，探索流域产业发展对环境的胁迫影响并进行系统调控。扩展出流域产业部门直接水足迹、完全水足迹、灰水足迹等核心概念，通过构造纳入水足迹评价的混合性投入产出表，对各产业部门的水足迹进行解析；借鉴生命周期影响评价的理论，采用Eco-indicator 99 体系，对各产业部门水足迹的环境影响进行定量分析，识别和验证得到影响环境的核心驱动因子；耦合投入产出和多目标优化模型，以产业部门水足迹作为表征流域产业发展水资源消耗和污染的衡量指标，建立起表达"流域产业发展-水资源消耗（完全水足迹）-水污染负荷（灰水足迹）-环境影响分析-受纳水体承载力约束-系统调控"的耦合调控模型，对滇池流域产业发展模式进行优化调控，为我国其他湖泊的类似研究提供方法和机制借鉴。

湖泊流域尺度的水足迹定量评估及其环境影响分析已成为近年来水资源管理领域关注的热点问题。本研究引入水足迹的相关理论，以经济发展与水环境保护矛盾冲突严重的滇池流域为研究对象，探索流域产业发展对环境的胁迫影响并进行系统调控。项目取得的主要研究成果如下：（1）基于湖泊流域尺度水足迹核算框架的滇池流域水足迹定量评估。采用自上而下法构建了一套综合的、普适性的流域尺度水足迹核算框架，对滇池流域2000-2011年的水足迹进行了量化评估，评估内容包括流域总水足迹、内部水足迹、外部水足迹、农业水足迹、工业水足迹、生态环境水足迹、居民生活水足迹和虚拟水贸易量。结果表明：滇池流域年平均总水足迹为28.18×108m3，其中95.4%是内部水足迹，农业生产消耗了大部分水资源，占总水足迹比例74.1%。滇池流域的人均水足迹是960.51m3/a，高于中国大部分地区。滇池流域主要农作物和动物产品年平均水足迹分别为4.88×108m3/a和8.97×108m3/a。（2）基于生命周期评价的滇池流域产业用水环境影响定量测度。本项目基于水足迹和生命周期评价（LCA）理论，引入资源导向型水足迹和环境导向型水足迹的概念和方法，探究生命周期评价方法在滇池流域水足迹环境影响评估中的应用。基于Eco-indicator 99方法对滇池流域水足迹的环境影响进行了定量测度，并自主开发了产品水足迹环境影响评价软件；（3）气候变化下的滇池流域产业发展水足迹响应及调控。基于DPSIR模型，对气候变化下的滇池流域1981-2011年农作物水足迹的演变过程及其影响因素进行研究和分析，并采用Monte Carlo模拟方法对2012-2092年该流域水足迹的变化趋势进行模拟和预测。在以上研究的基础上，提出了滇池流域产业发展调控和水资源管理的政策建议。本项目的研究为流域尺度的水足迹核算及环境影响分析提供了新思路和方法借鉴，为滇池流域产业结构调整、产业节水和创新水管理提供了数据支撑和科学参考。