滇池流域典型农业的环境经济效能与区域农业发展模式优化研究

Non point source pollution is the most important sources of pollution in Dianchi watershed. How to adjust and optimize the agricultural development is the most important issues of controlling pollution and optimizing regional development of Dianchi watershed. This project aims to analysis the economic benefits and pollutant characteristics of agricultural by the way of the combination of the previous research results and field investigation, to evaluate the different types of unit output value of agricultural virtual water, and analysis the output of agricultural value by model. This study wil slecte planting , breeding , processing of agricultural products, leisure and sightseeing agriculture including corn planting ,greenhouse vegetables and flower planting, vegetable processing , leisure add up to 13 typical types of agriculture in Dianchi watershed to study. We will investigate by questionnaire on agricultural economic level , to evaluate different agriculture virtual water demand of per output. Calculating the amont of pollutants produced by different agriculture with the output coefficient model formula. Comprehensive evaluating different agriculture with 5 economic indicators and 2 resources-environment indicators to provide the selection basis of urban agriculture for watershed of Lake Dianchi as well as Kunming. comprehensive evaluating economic, environmental and ecological aspects by means of the economic efficiency of agricultural production, virtual water and ecosystem carrying capacity calculation, The results of project will allocate and assemble different types of agriculture according to the principle of "economic efficiency maximization, minimizing environmental impact". Combined with the industrial structure adjustment and the comprehensive needs of the development of agricultural economy ，point out the selection scheme and combination mode of development of urban agriculture type，to provide scientific guidance to the management decisions of agricultural non-point source pollution ，water environment protection measures and the development of urban agriculture in Dianchi lake watershed.

农业面源污染是滇池流域最重要的污染来源，如何调整和优化流域农业的发展是滇池污染治理和区域优化发展的重要问题。本项目从流域农业状况分析农业经济收益、产生的污染特征，对流域不同的农业类型单位产值虚拟水进行评估，利用污染物输出系数模型公式分析单位农业产值污染物输出量，重点研究滇池流域种植业、养殖业、农产品加工业、休闲观光农业四大类的玉米种植、设施大棚叶菜种植、花卉种植、蔬菜加工、休闲农家乐等13种不同的农业类型进行5个经济指标、2个资源环境指标的综合评价。从农产品生产产生的产业经济效能、水资源消耗量导致的水环境污染及流域农业生态承载力核算进行经济、环境、生态三方面的综合评价，按照“经济效能最大化、环境影响最小化”的原则优化配置不同农业类型并组装。结合产业结构调整与农业经济发展的综合需求，提出都市农业发展类型的遴选方案和组合模式，对滇池流域农业面源污染管理的决策和都市农业发展提供科学指导。

农业面源污染是滇池流域最重要的污染来源，调整和优化流域农业的发展是滇池污染治理和区域优化发展的重要问题。研究表明：（1）基于水足迹的污染物净化能力进行滇池流域水环境承载力评估，通过构建生态服务-人为调控耦合作用下流域水环境承载力指标体系并建模得出：滇池流域水环境承载状态现状为超载，超载率为16%；北部子流域以COD为主要制约因子，南部区域以磷为主要制约因子，这主要与北方为城区，城市生活污染压力大，南部为耕地集中区域，农业面源污染严重，且为典型富磷区等有关。（2）结合5个经济指标、2个资源环境指标综合评价13种不同农业类型的综合效能排名，分析得出，适合种植于山地的玉米、梨树和桃树种植三种农业类型中桃树种植的综合效能最高；坡耕地种植的烤烟、露地西葫芦和露地青花种植中烤烟种植的综合效能最高；适合坝平地种植中的葡萄种植、设施大棚蔬菜、设施大棚花卉和苗圃种植中苗圃种植综合效能最好，其次是设施大棚蔬菜；养殖业中综合效能最好的是蛋鸡；新型农业中蔬菜加工的综合效能最好。本研究通过滇池流域水环境承载力评估与农业综合效能评估结果，建议滇池流域在山区可以选择发展“桃树种植+蛋鸡养殖”二者相结合的都市农业模式，在半山区的坡耕地选择发展“生态种植模式”；湖滨坝平地地区选择发展采用污染防控型水肥循环利用技术和节肥调控技术的设施大棚、多功能的农业科技示范园和休闲农家乐以及“公司+基地”的农产品加工业。提出结合滇池流域的自然、社会、经济发展情况遴选适合流域发展的都市农业模式，为滇池流域都市农业模式的遴选提供科学依据及科学的建议。