基于系统视角的可再生能源投资影响因素、多维效应及政策体系研究

Based on the System Theory, including the general system, ecological system, and complex system theory, this research tries to analyze transmission mechanism of “Influencing factors-renewable energy investment-economy, environment and society”, to dissect the explicit and implicit paths, close and remote relations in the system and then clear and definite operating law of system operation. Besides, it attempts to test the long-term, short-term and time-varying effects, single factor and comprehensive effect of macro, meso and micro factors on renewable energy investment with the methods of Panel Data Model, hierarchical Regression Analysis, and State Space Model etc.; the differences of the effects are also compared from the multilevel. Moreover, we try to test impacts of renewable energy investment on economy, environment, society and even green economy development through technology and structure paths etc.; and the effectiveness of related polices are also considered to take into account with the method of Regression Discontinuity Design. Furthermore, in consideration of the characteristics of the openness, dynamics and complexity of renewable energy investment system, using the panel threshold model, system dynamics model, etc., this research also aims to test the impact of environmental uncertainty on renewable energy investment, the threshold effect of derivative financial instruments on the development of green economy through renewable energy investment, and multi-relationships in the system under the conditions of interaction and multiple feedback; and forecast the movement trend of renewable energy investment and its effect further. Based on the results of the above theoretical and empirical analysis, combining the reality of China's economy development, this research finally aims to obtain systematic policies framework and recommendations to promote renewable energy development.

基于系统理论，分析“影响因素——可再生能源投资——经济、环境、社会”的传导机理，剖析系统中的隐性和显性路径、近程和远程关系，明确系统的运作规律。在此基础上，第一、集成运用面板数据模型、分层线性回归模型、状态空间模型等，测量宏、中、微观因素对可再生能源投资的长期、短期和时变作用，单因素和多因素综合作用，比较多层面差异性；第二、运用调节效应模型测量可再生能源投资通过结构、技术等路径产生的经济、环境及社会效应，乃至对绿色经济发展的影响，并运用断点回归方法兼顾分析政策的有效性；第三、基于系统的开放性、动态性和复杂性特征，运用面板门槛模型、系统动力学模型，测量环境不确定性对可再生能源投资的影响，衍生金融工具通过可再生能源投资对绿色经济发展的门槛作用，模拟系统中的交互影响和多元反馈关系，预测可再生能源投资及效应的变动趋势。进而结合我国实际，客观定位政策着力点和方向，构建系统性的可再生能源投资政策体系。

本项目基于系统理论，从“影响因素——可再生能源投资——多维度效应”传导机理出发，理论和实证研究了影响可再生能源投资的宏观、中观和微观因素，以及可再生能源投资所产生的经济、环境、社会多维度的效应。明确了相关因素对可再生能源投资的长期、短期和时变作用，这其中重点研究了绿色信贷、绿色债券、绿色金融发展、政府补贴，尤其是各类政策乃至绿色制度环境对可再生能源投资的影响。此外，本项目探寻了可再生能源投资影响经济、环境、社会等的显性和隐性渠道，理清了系统中复杂的非线性关系。这其中重点讨论了结构和技术路径。在此基础上，进一步关注了三大问题，一是基于影响可再生能源投资各类因素，进行了相关指数的构建；二是考虑到了外部冲击即经济环境的不确定性对可再生能源投资系统的影响；第三、对可再生能源投资进行了分类别的对比研究，并有针对性地选择了环保企业进行了具体分析。基于理论和实证研究的结果，项目进一步对促进可再生能源投资的相关政策措施进行了研究。项目的研究成果对于判研现有政策的有效性、客观定位政策的着力点和方向，制定系统性的再生能源投资政策体系，尤其是市场导向的政策工具的选择和协调运用，全面推动能源战略转型具有参考价值。