农地确权对农地流转市场影响的实证研究——兼论农地流转市场的交易成本及其变化

Cultivated land rental market has been of an important way to improve efficiency of both land allocation and Chinese agricultural systems. It would be of vital importance to address these issues quantitatively for policy making, for instance, how is the current situation of the cultivated land transfer, whether the licensed cultivated land right totally built up by the end of 2012 will stimulate the development of the rental market, as well as whether there exists transaction cost in cultivated land rental market and how it changes. The answer to these issues would rely on the three-period panel datasets which is comprised of 1) available 1200 household survey panel data in 2000 and 2008 covering six provinces; and 2) proposed survey tracing for 1) in 2014. Based the above dataset, we would carry out statistical analysis of the situation, trend, and characteristics of cultivated land transfer for the period of 2000-2014, evaluate the impacts of licensed cultivated land right on the land transfer based on natural experiment policy assessment model, and quantitatively analyze the transaction costs as well as its changes by utilizing "land rental model" based on "friction model". Finally, we would conclude this research with policy suggestion.

农地流转已经成为改进土地资源配置效率、提升农业效率的重要途径，那么，近几年农地流转的现状如何、将于2012年底完成的农地"确权"是否能够刺激流转市场的发展、流转市场是否存在交易成本、如存在其又是如何变化的，这些问题的定量回答对制定下一步的流转政策具有重要意义。本项目将在已有的全国6省1200农户的两期（2000和2008年）面板数据基础上于2014年对部分样本进行追踪调查，从而形成关于农地流转和确权的三期面板数据。在这个基础上，对本世纪前15年（2000-2014）的农地流转现状、趋势和特点进行统计描述分析、利用规范的"自然实验政策评估"计量模型科学评价农地"确权"对流转的影响、并借用国外在"摩擦力模型"基础上发展出来的"土地租赁模型"定量分析目前流转市场的交易成本及其变化，最终为流转市场的健康发展提供政策依据。

农地流转已经成为改进土地资源配置效率、提升农业效率的重要途径，那么，近几年农地流转的现状如何、正在推进的农地“确权”是否能够刺激流转市场的发展、流转市场是否存在交易成本、如存在其又是如何变化的，这些问题的定量回答对制定下一步的流转政策具有重要意义。. 本项目在已有的全国6 省1200 农户的两期（2000 和2008年）面板数据基础上于2013年底完成对6省1200户的追踪调查，从而形成了三期面板数据。基于此，对2000-2013年的农地流转现状、趋势和特点进行了统计描述分析。对农地流转出现的新特征进行了解释。然后借用国外在“摩擦力模型”基础上发展出来的“土地租赁模型”定量分析我国目前流转市场的交易成本及其变化。为流转市场的健康发展提供了相关政策建议。.