非营利组织中个人捐赠者信任受损的动态过程、作用机制及仿真

The development of the nonprofit organizations needs the trustworthy environment while the transmission and diffusion of the negative information brings the philanthropy to a trust crisis, which severely affects the charitable income of the nonprofits and blocks the increase of the social welfare. So, it can be seen that it is very important to reveal the essences of damaged trust of individual donors about charities in the risk society. .Based on the time background of the risk society, focuses on the dynamic and complex problems of the trust damage of individual donors under the philanthropic environment,this proposal aims to ①determine the psychological representation of the damaged trust of the individual donors, and describe its dynamic process with exploratory analysis and confirmatory analysis methods; ② examine the incentives and formation mechanism of the damaged trust of the individual donors with three round experiments, and discover the intrinsic diffusion rules of the incentives relying on the random evolutionary gaming model; ③ reveal the evolution mechanism of the effects of damaged trust of individual donors on their donation decision-making in the nonprofit organizations through simulation experiment of system dynamics; and ④ based on comparative study on two kinds of object cases, advance the restoration and reconstruction mode and strategy for the damaged trust of the individual donors with the theoretical models of organizational trust restoration. This study has broadened its research perspective from the statistic viewpoint to the dynamics, and its research field has extanded from commercial circumstance to the commonweal background. It can be seen that this proposal broadens the trust study field and system, and is helpful to guide the nonprofit organizations to regain the public trust so as to effectively settle the livelihood problems.

非营利组织发展需可信的环境，然负面信息传播扩散致使慈善事业出现信任危机，这已严重影响了非营利组织的慈善收入，阻碍了社会福利的增加。可见，揭示风险社会中慈善领域个人捐赠者信任受损的本质极为重要。.本项目依托风险社会时代背景，聚焦慈善环境下个人捐赠者信任受损状态动态性及复杂性难题，重点研究：①运用探索性及验证性方法确定个人捐赠者信任受损的心理表征，描述信任受损的动态过程。②运用三轮实验探索个人捐赠者信任受损的诱变因素与形成机制，借助随机演化博弈模型发现诱因内在扩散规律。③采用系统动力学仿真实验揭示非营利组织中个人信任受损对其捐赠决策影响的演化机理。④在两类对象案例对比研究基础上，借鉴组织信任修复理论模型，形成个人捐赠者信任受损的修复重构模式与策略。本研究视角由静态拓展到动态，范畴由商业情境拓宽为公益背景。可见，本项目拓宽了信任研究范畴与体系，有助于引导非营利组织重拾公众信任以有效解决民生问题。

非营利组织在我国民生问题解决中起到了重要作用，其发展需要一个可信的环境。然而，负面事件的出现与传播，导致公众对慈善事业的信任受到损害。基本现实及统计数据显示，这已严重影响了非营利组织的慈善收入，进而阻碍了社会福利的增加。于是，理解公益领域个人捐赠者信任受损的本质将极为重要。然而，信任受损并非信任或不信任的简单逆转与延伸，而是介于信任与不信任的一种随时间发生变化的中介状态。因此，本研究基于信任受损随时间变化的视角，以慈善环境下的个人捐赠者信任受损的初始状态—持续受损—不信任/信任动态变化为主线对个人捐赠者信任受损及其动态演化机制进行了研究，得到了如下创新性结论：.（1）运用探索性及验证性方法确定了风险社会中个人捐赠者信任受损的心理表征体现在负面影响、风险估计、责任归因、行业信任、担忧程度、负性情绪六个方面。进一步的实证分析发现，这六个层面实际上可归类为认知与情绪两个维度，并揭示了个人捐赠者信任受损的心理机制呈现出“认知—情绪—信任受损”的序贯结构。.（2）在描绘信任受损动态过程的基础上，基于双因素理论，确定了个人捐赠者信任初始受损的形成机制，结果表明：激励因素中的信息质量、结构保证、情境规范、联系沟通，以及保健因素中的制度约束、声望认同、事项属性和刻板印象等都会导致个人捐赠者的信任受损。进而，运用两轮实验揭示了个人捐赠者信任初始受损动态作用机理，认为个人捐赠者信任受损的变化过程实际上是一个循环的动态反馈过程，信任受损的水平将决定着这个循环动态过程的稳定性。.（3）运用演化博弈论方法，建立了复制动态方程的随机演化博弈模型分析了信任受损后两主体的行为策略演化过程；运用多Agent模拟仿真了诱因扩散过程，进而解释了个人捐赠者信任受损的内在扩散过程及其决定因素；建立情景嵌入的个人捐赠者信任受损的演化模型，揭示社会公众对非营利组织信任受损的内在演化规律和群体传染效应。.（4）运用情景模拟实验，结合否认、降低危机及重建三种具体策略，解释了慈善领域内危机事件后公众信任受损及其修复的内在机理，发现了公众归因在信任恢复中的重要作用。. 总之，本研究视角由静态拓展到了动态、范畴由商业情境拓宽为公益背景，其研究结论拓宽了信任研究范畴与体系，有助于引导非营利组织有效应对危机事件、重拾公众信任以有效解决民生问题。