社会公众集群捐赠行为涌现的动力机制及过程研究

Internet has changed the external environment of the public welfare undertaking, toppled down the donation thought of the social public and spawned the reality of the collective donation with different social stratums, space-times and territories and network spaces calling up the love with the love, as a result, it is extremely important to reveal the dynamic mechanism and process rule of emergence of the collective donation behaviors of the social public so as to drive the sustainable development of the public welfare undertaking. Based on the double perspectives of the donors' motivation and their behaviors of cause information, this project identifies the trait differences in the collective donation behaviors of the social public. Then, in combination with many typical cases, based on the grounded theory, comprehensively viewed from “cause-structure-action”, extracts the key driving factors in the collective donation emergence process and reveals its intrinsic driving mechanism. Subsequently, based on the diaschistic network of "public cause-individual donor", the self-organization process and synchronous rule of the emergence of the collective donation behavior will be explained with the method of systematology. Finally, according to the integrated resilient management theory, the guidance strategy can be and formulated for the collective donation behaviors of the social public. This project extends the donation behaviors from the study on individual to the one on the group, from the static study to the dynamic study, from the online and offline independent study to the integrated emerging study, and the findings will provide a new model for probing into the solutions for the collective donation rules with the virtual social interaction characteristics and the reasonable mobilization mode of the donation resources satisfying the social demand.

互联网改变了公益事业的外部环境，颠覆了社会公众的捐赠思维，突现了不同社会阶层、时空地域、网络空间以爱唤爱的集群捐赠现实，故揭示社会公众集群捐赠行为涌现的动力机制与过程对于推动公益事业持续发展极为重要。本项目从捐赠者的动机及其公益事项信息行为双重视角，识别社会公众集群捐赠行为特征差异。然后，结合多个典型案例，运用扎根理论方法，从“事项-结构-行动”综合视角，提取集群捐赠涌现过程中的关键驱动因素，揭示其作用机理。接着，基于“公益事项-个人捐赠者”二分网络，运用系统学方法探索集群捐赠行为涌现的自组织过程与同步规律。最后，借鉴集成化弹性管理思想，制定社会公众集群捐赠行为的引导策略。本项目将捐赠行为由个体研究延伸到群体研究，由静态研究拓展到动态研究，由线上、线下的独立研究演变为二者融合的涌现研究，其成果为探索具有虚实社会互动特征的集群捐赠规律以及满足社会需求的捐赠资源合理流动模式求解提供新的范式。

本项目以慈善捐赠中的集群行为问题背景，以集群捐赠行为的描述与操作化测量为基础，采用案例分析、扎根理论、实证研究与建模仿真等相结合的方法，深入探讨集群捐赠行为涌现的动力机制与过程，以构造相应的引导策略体系。主要研究内容和重要结果包括：①从逻辑演绎与历史变迁角度，对“集群捐赠”现象进行理论溯源及内涵界定；运用聚类及方差分析揭示集群捐赠群体在行为时间、空间、情感和倾向等维度上的差异。②基于“事项-结构-行动”的综合视角，运用扎根理论方法，诠释了社会公众集群捐赠行为涌现的关键驱动要素及其“态度—情境—行为”作用模型；整合理性与非理性研究视角，探究了救助对象可识别性通过情绪反应与感知责任影响集群捐赠行为意向的具体路径；以“郭美美”事件等多案例，建构了网络群体性事件中政府公信力演变时的“情境—感知—行为” 整合模型，并运用社会计算方法揭示该过程中的网络驱动效应和群体趋同效应。③以“免费午餐”等为对象，运用超循环理论来剖析社会公众集群捐赠行为涌现过程的运行方式；结合公益事项—个人捐赠者二分网络，建立了基于元胞自动机的非线性涌现模型，揭示有募捐诉求公益事项数量及节点获取信息能力对集群捐赠行为动力学的影响；运用多案例分析方法，揭示了群体性事件网络舆情中结构逆转现象及其内在机理。④以“信念-意愿-结果”基本序贯逻辑为依据，检验了初始信任受损和持续信任受损分别在捐赠前后阶段决策过程中的不同作用；运用演化博弈方法，揭示了“社会公众—非营利组织”两主体间行为策略互动的演化轨迹；运用Agent技术，考察公众信任受损诱因扩散的动态过程及规律；从内部运作的视角，对非营利组织效率与社会捐赠收入关系进行了解释；采用情境式问卷调查的方法，考察了组织募捐方式对员工捐赠数额的影响。. 项目研究揭示的集群捐赠行为的涌现机制及弹性引导策略，可为常规或突发事件中组织资源动员与公众集群响应提供有效指导及策略依据，具有明显的学术价值和充分的现实需求。