沿海大型枢纽港陆路集疏运多通道空间尺度随机动态规划研究

A stable growth in coastal ports' throughputs and a tendency of upsizing ships sharp the imbalance between supply and demand of port collection and distribution system (PCDS), reflected in the increasingly serious traffic congestion in collecting and distributing corridors (CDCs). The relevant planning and design theories of highway and urban road cannot accurately reflect the supply-demand relationship of PCDS, because of ignoring the influence of ships' arrival and handling features on traffic flow in port. This research takes the spatial scale of landside CDCs in large coastal hub port as objective, explores the complex essence of PCDS, and mines the features of port traffic driven by random factors as ships' arrival. From the perspective of the randomness of ships' arrival and port operation, it studies some theoretical approaches on calculating the service level-based capacity of port CDCs, and proposes the method of determining spatial scale of landside CDCs based on redundancy optimization theory. Furthermore, on the basis of introducing Complex adaptive system(CAS) theory to analyze the evolution mechanism of PCDS in the development of port's scale and function, dynamic programming is used to study the demands of spatial scale of landside CDCs in various stages of port development. A theoretical system of spatial scale optimization of port CDCs constructed in this research will provide support for the construction of CDCs in large coastal hub port.

吞吐量的持续增长和船舶大型化的发展趋势，使沿海港口集疏运体系供需矛盾日益突出，集疏运通道拥堵现象日趋严重。规划与设计港口集疏运通道时若按照公路或铁路相关理论，则忽略了船舶到港及装卸特性对港口集疏运通道交通的影响,进而无法准确反映港口集疏运体系的供需关系。本研究以大型枢纽港陆路集疏运体系多通道空间尺度为研究对象，探究港口集疏运体系的复杂系统本质，挖掘船舶到港等随机因素驱动下的港口陆路集疏运交通特征；从船舶到港与港口生产随机性的视角，建立基于通道服务水平的港口集疏运通道通过能力计算理论；提出基于冗余优化的港口陆路集疏运通道空间尺度确定方法；引入复杂自适应系统理论辨析港口规模及功能的发展过程中集疏运交通特征演化机理，运用动态规划理论，研究适应港口发展各阶段陆路集疏运多通道空间尺度的需求，构建沿海大型枢纽港陆路集疏运体系多通道空间尺度随机动态规划模型，为沿海大型枢纽港口集疏运通道建设提供理论支撑。

随着港口吞吐量的增长和船舶大型化趋势的不断发展，集疏港道路拥堵已成为部分沿海主要港口的常态化问题，集疏运通道空间尺度与货物运输需求的不匹配日趋成为沿海港口发展的瓶颈，严重制约了港口综合能力的发挥。本研究旨在通过剖析沿海港口集疏运体系本质，提出适应沿海大型枢纽港陆路集疏运需求的通道空间尺度动态规划理论。课题基本完成了预期研究内容，成果主要包括辨析了沿海大型枢纽港陆路集疏运交通特征演化机理；提出了基于港口生产作业流程的陆路集疏运通道通过能力确定方法；构建了基于陆路集疏运交通特征演化机理的多通道空间尺度随机动态规划模型；最后将所提出理论运用于实际港口工程，对理论进行验证和完善。课题研究成果为解决港口集疏运瓶颈问题提供了理论支持。