信息型市场操纵经济后果及其监管研究

Information-based market manipulation was punished for the first time in 2016 marking the event as a regulatory milestone, with a prominent example of this being the “Xu Xiang Manipulation Case”. Differing from traditional market manipulation, information-based market manipulation involves the joint manipulation of listed companies (the real economy) and secondary market institutions (capital markets). This special model provides the best research platform for exploring the fundamental reasons for the disruption of the allocation of resources in China's capital market and the root cause of how the real economy had been “hollowed out”. It also offers an explanation for unique phenomena such as: Large Stock Dividends, Equity Private Placement, Asset Reorganization, and Pseudo Market Capitalization Management in the China's capital markets. Firstly, the project defines the information-based market manipulation and identifies its characteristics, making a marginal contribution to the market manipulation theory. Secondly, we explore the influence mechanism of information-based manipulation by analyzing “resources tilted away from the real economy” from both the macroscopic and microcosmic perspectives, study the “resources tilted towards a fictitious economy” from both the explicit and recessive angles, analyze the “eliminating the inferior” effect from the point of economic restructuring. We then proceed to study the characteristics of a real economy that are susceptible to information-based manipulation from the dimensions of market, industry and corporate life cycles. Lastly, some supervision ideas and suggestions are put forward on the basis of dynamic game theory and experimental approaches.

具有监管里程碑意义的信息型市场操纵于2016年首次被处罚，“徐翔案”即属于该类型。与传统的市场操纵不同，信息型市场操纵涉及上市公司（实体经济）与二级市场机构（资本市场）的联合操纵，这种特殊的模式为探究中国资本市场资源配置功能紊乱、资金“脱实向虚”的根本原因提供了最佳的研究平台。也可以为中国资本市场高送转、定向增发、资产重组、伪市值管理等特有现象提供解释。本项目首先精确定义信息型市场操纵，识别其特征，为市场操纵理论作出边际贡献；其次从宏观、微观两个角度分析“脱实”，从显性、隐性两个维度研究“向虚”，从经济结构调整角度分析“劣汰”效应，探究信息型市场操纵对实体经济的影响机理及路径；然后从市场、行业、成长性等多维度探究易被信息型市场操纵的实体经济特征；最后运用动态博弈及实验研究方法构建识别与监管的预警体系。

首例信息型市场操纵的刑事案件——“徐翔案”于2017年判决，具有里程碑意义。与传统的短线操纵不同，信息型市场操纵涉及上市公司（实体经济）与二级市场机构（资本市场）的联合操纵，操纵者利用信息发布与传播、配合公司行动和连续交易，联合操纵股价，炒作持续性更长、影响范围更广，更容易引发股价巨振、诱导大量资金跟风交易，对实体经济的影响更大。本项目首先从理论、统计和实证三个维度分析了信息型市场操纵的内涵特征和主要方式。研究发现，信息型市场操纵在操纵主体、操纵动机、资金规模、操纵周期、影响范围和危害程度等方面与传统操纵均存在明显差异。特别在操纵手段上，除了传统的抬拉打压等异常交易行为，信息型市场操纵还有可能通过控制公司发布“高送转”、“业绩预增”、“并购重组”等利好信息实现操纵目标。其次，本项目分别从上市公司、金融机构以及市场交易环境等层面，考察了信息型市场操纵的主要动机与原因。研究发现，上市公司重要股东减持、股权质押风险、机构投资者考核压力等均会对信息型市场操纵产生重要影响。最后，本项目还探讨了信息型市场操纵的经济后果和监管政策。研究发现，信息型市场操纵严重破坏了企业生产经营秩序，加剧了社会财富分化并导致产业资本脱离实体经济。本项目为研究资本市场交易行为如何影响实体经济提供了新的证据，对监管部门从严打击市场操纵行为、实现资本市场高质量发展等具有一定启示。