基于风险经验认知的巨灾保险需求研究：理论、实证与政策

As one of the countries most affected by natural disasters, China started to learn from international experience and introduce insurance mechanism into the reduction and prevention of disasters in the recent years. The experience of the developed countries such as the USA and Germany indicate that insurance demand is a crucial determinant for the development of catastrophic insurance. Catastrophe is a kind of risk with low-probability-high-consequence (LPHC), therefore the potential insurant’ perception of risk, purchasing psychology, demand and expected price for catastrophic insurance all differ with those of other risks. This project uses the theoretical model explaining the decision-making under uncertainty (probability distribution unknown), and apply the methods of experimental economics to test the impact of risk perception on the demand for catastrophic insurance. Based on traditional risk theory, we first employ two stage cumulative prospect theory to analyze the factors for catastrophic insurance demand from the perspectives of weight and value function. In addition, by using data obtained from questionnaire, traditional experiment and field experiment, we study the factors affecting the demand of catastrophic insurance, and then offer the policy advice on the development of catastrophic insurance in China. This project not only enriches the research in behavior finance, but also contributes to the demand-side reform on the system of catastrophic insurance in China, as well as the goal set forth by the State Council to incorporate catastrophic insurance into the system of reduction and prevention of natural disasters before 2020.

中国是自然灾害频发的国家，近年来我国政府借鉴国际经验开始引入保险机制参与减灾防灾。美、德等成熟国家的经验均表明，需求不足是制约巨灾保险发展的重要因素。巨灾作为一种小概率、高损失的风险，潜在投保人对此类风险的认知、购买心理、保险需求和预期价格均有异于其他风险。本项目结合解释不确定经验决策的理论模型和建立在问卷和实验基础上的实证研究，检验风险经验认知对巨灾保险需求的影响。具体地，以经典风险理论为基础，从权重函数与价值函数的二维视角，利用二阶段累积前景理论分析巨灾保险需求影响要素及函数特征。同时，通过问卷、传统实验室和田野实验获取经验数据，实证检验风险经验认知各项要素如何影响我国巨灾保险需求，进而为巨灾保险发展提供政策建议。本项目的研究丰富了行为金融学的相关研究，有助于推动我国巨灾保险制度建设的需求侧改革，助力国务院提出的2020年实现将巨灾保险制度纳入我国防灾减灾体系的目标。

巨灾作为一种低概率高损失的风险，潜在投保人对此类风险的认知、购买心理、保险需求和预期价格均有异于其他风险。本项目从文献分析入手，《中国巨灾保险研究：内容特征与理论视角》选取1999-2016年发表在CSSCI收录期刊的279篇相关文献，采用Zweifel和Eisen（2012）教科书框架分析法对我国巨灾保险研究的内容特征和理论视角进行分析与评述。理论分析上，本项目阶段性成果《巨灾保险开发：需求、困境与对策——基于预期效用理论分析》通过预期效用理论模型的构建，可以发现风险偏好的类型变化、支付意愿和财富不匹配、巨灾风险集聚都导致了巨灾保险的需求不足。在保险需求的理论研究基础上，项目进一步对灾害评估与管理进行实证分析。《自然灾害损失评估：联合国框架、评价与案例》分析联合国灾害损失评估的原则，探讨重置成本法在灾害损失评估中的运用，并以2008年汶川地震为例进一步研究该方法体系在我国的实践。《中国灾害管理中的保险作用分析》实证检验了巨灾保险需求对灾害管理的作用、效果与机制。政策建议上，本项目结合我国灾害管理的实际需要，以“一带一路”和“新冠肺炎”作为两大分析窗口。《一带一路防灾减灾合作：挑战与应对》分析了“一带一路”国家的自然灾害与风险特征，探讨防灾减灾合作的挑战与应对 ；《保险在应对公共卫生事件中的功能发挥与演进》、《新冠肺炎疫情对保险业的影响研究》等文章，针对新冠肺炎作为外生冲击，讨论保险的功能发挥与作用，并且提出有效保险需求对防范风险的积极作用。本项目的研究有助于我国巨灾保险制度建设的需求侧改革，助力国务院提出的2020年将巨灾保险制度纳入我国防灾减灾体系的目标。