IT服务外包进度风险控制的分布式决策机制研究

IT outsourcing is a new Pattern for enterprises, which can it focus on core competencies. But the schedule risk of IT project showed no signs of abating, and which is impacted by a lot of new risk from this the new pattern, the failure rate is high. Currently the study on schedule risk control of IT outsourcing is still a blank, the relevant research lacks the consideration on the unique features of IT outsourcing, which is difficult to guide the practice of risk control. Hence based on the decision mechanism and the information situation between the client and providers, this research try to provied a theory and mothed, which si suitbale for the schedule risk control requirement of IT outsorcing. Firstly, the event chain method is used to analysis the schedule risk of IT outsourcing project, and find the risk factors which impacts the of the IT project, then evaluates the level of schedule risk on the IT project. Secondly, on the perspective of cooperation mechanisms and information asymmetric, distributed decision making (DDM) theory and stochastic programming method is used to build the mathematical models of schedule risk control, then optimization algorithm is designed to find the optimal combination of risk control strategies. The research will enrich and perfect the risk management theory of IT outsourcing, and provide quantitative support for the decision and implementation of IT outsourcing schedule risk control.

IT外包是企业增强核心竞争力的一种崭新模式。在该模式下，项目的进度风险不但没有减弱，又受到了新风险的影响，导致IT外包失败率居高不下。目前IT外包环境下进度风险控制的研究整体上还处于空白状态，相关研究缺乏对外包决策特点的考虑，难以指导其风险控制实践。因此，本课题从IT外包环境下的决策机制和信息状态出发，尝试提出一套符合IT外包特点的进度风险控制决策的理论和方法。 首先，本课题拟运用事件链方法对IT外包项目的进度进行分析，找出影响项目进度的风险因素，评估项目的进度风险。然后，针对IT外包的决策机制和信息不对称的特点，运用分布式决策（DDM）理论和随机规划方法，构建两层的进度风险控制模型，并设计相应的优化算法，在仿真模拟的基础上提出各决策机制下进度风险控制的最优策略组合。本课题的研究成果将丰富IT外包风险管理理论，为IT外包进度风险控制决策提供科学的决策参考。

IT外包是企业增强核心竞争力的一种崭新模式。在该模式下，项目的进度风险不但没有减弱，又受到了新风险的影响，导致IT外包失败率居高不下。目前IT外包环境下进度风险控制的研究整体上还处于空白状态，相关研究缺乏对外包决策特点的考虑，难以指导其风险控制实践。因此，本课题从IT外包环境下的决策机制和信息状态出发，尝试提出一套符合IT外包特点的进度风险控制决策的理论和方法。 首先，本课题对IT外包项目的进度进行分析，找出影响项目进度的风险因素，评估项目的进度风险。然后，针对IT外包的决策机制和信息不对称的特点，运用分布式决策（DDM）理论和随机规划方法，分别构建了结构化分布式决策、组织化分布式决策、委托代理和协商机制四类进度风险控制模型，并设计了多种群粒子群优化算法，在仿真模拟的基础上提出各决策机制下进度风险控制的最优策略组合。本课题为IT外包环境下的项目进度风险控制问题，从不同的决策机制角度，提供了辅助决策的数学模型和优化算法工具，对该领域的相关理论研究空白起到填补作用，同时对IT外包业的健康发展起到积极的实践指导作用。