高拱坝施工中后期导流风险与进度风险耦合作用机理及动态决策研究

Most high arch dams are built in alpine and ravine region with rapid rise and fall of flood, which are characterized as complex structure and narrow concreting surface. So it is difficult to predict diversion risk and control schedule. Mid-later diversion risk and schedule risk are closely related and affected by each other, it is coupling effect. This effect is critical for dynamic decision-making of diversion scheme and construction scheme. Therefore, it is necessary to profoundly analyze the coupling mechanism between mid-later diversion risk and schedule risk for high arch dam construction and its dynamic decision-making..Some research methods (e.g. data mining, risk decision-making, simulation testing) are employed in this study. Firstly, knowledge base of high arch dam construction is established, and the factors of mid-later diversion risk and schedule risk are profoundly mined, which could explore the influence effect and evolution mechanism of each factor. Secondly, a coupled analysis model of diversion risk and schedule risk is established and random simulation tests are proposed with considering randomness of risk factors, then the coupling effects between mid-later diversion risk and schedule risk under the influence of multiple factors (coupling factors) are ascertained. Moreover, the coupling mechanism between mid-later diversion risk and schedule risk for high arch dam construction is revealed. Finally, a dynamic decision-making method based on coupling effect is proposed, which could realize the scientific dynamic adjustment and optimization of diversion scheme and construction scheme. Research results can solve the scientific problems of construction management for high arch dams, and can offer a decision-making support for site construction managers.

高拱坝大多建于高山峡谷地区，洪水陡涨陡落；拱坝结构复杂，仓面狭窄，导流风险预测及进度控制困难。高拱坝施工中后期导流风险与进度风险相互影响，存在耦合作用。这种耦合作用是导流方案与施工方案动态决策的关键，有必要系统研究高拱坝施工中后期导流风险与进度风险的耦合作用机理及方案动态决策。.本项目拟采用数据挖掘、风险决策、仿真试验等方法，首先建立高拱坝施工知识库，挖掘中后期导流风险和进度风险因素，探寻不同风险因素的影响效应和演化机理；建立导流风险与进度风险的耦合分析模型并考虑风险因素的随机性开展随机仿真试验，探明多因素(耦合因子)作用下导流风险与进度风险间的耦合效应，揭示高拱坝施工中后期导流风险与进度风险间的耦合作用机理，提出一种基于风险耦合作用的动态决策方法，实现高拱坝导流方案与施工方案的科学动态调整与优化。研究成果可解决高拱坝施工管理中存在的基础科学问题，并为现场施工管理人员提供决策支持。

高拱坝施工中后期导流风险与进度风险相互作用相互影响，存在耦合作用，这种耦合作用是导流方案与施工方案动态决策的关键。本项目针对高拱坝中后期导流风险、进度风险及其耦合机理开展了深入系统研究，揭示导流风险与进度风险之间的耦合机理，为科学制定高拱坝施工方案、优化施工资源配置、提高现场管理效率和水平提供决策依据。.首先，建立了高拱坝施工信息模型，实现了高拱坝施工的动态化、集成化和可视化管理，并为导流风险和进度风险分析提供信息平台。.其次，构建了考虑施工进度影响的高拱坝施工中后期导流风险分析体系，提出了基于Monte-Carlo方法的高拱坝中后期导流风险计算方法；建立了高拱坝施工进度风险因素库，构建了进度风险演化分析模型和动态监控模型，实现了高拱坝施工全过程的进度风险分析、计算、模拟、仿真及控制。.最后，揭示了高拱坝中后期导流风险与进度风险之间的耦合作用机理，提出基了于耦合机理的动态决策方法，为高拱坝施工管理决策提供理论依据。