农村金融市场发育对种粮大户形成的影响机理研究

It is helpful for promoting agricultural economic development and China's food security to moderate enlarge the scale of grain farmers and cultivate a number of stable large grain production households. From the view of steady development, the formation of large grain production household includes two parts. The first part is to expand the scale of production, which needs capital to instead of labor, services and land. The second part is to make the scale production stable, which need insurance market for ensuring grain production household would not face huge risk because of the specialization, scale production and service outsourcing. Therefore, this study focuses on “The Influence Mechanism of Rural Financial Market to the Formation of Large Grain Production Household”. First of all, it is through on-the-spot investigation to demonstrate that there are problems of "credit constraints" and "insurance failure" in China's rural financial market. Secondly, the theoretical frameworks are constructed respectively to demonstrate the influence of "credit constraints" and "insurance failure" on the formation of large grain production household, and using survey data to make empirical testing for it. Thirdly, it analyzes the threshold effect of financial market development on the formation of large grain production household by introducing threshold variables, to make an economic explain for the differences between grain farmers. At last, it accords to the research conclusions to make some countermeasures of large grain production household formation from the perspective of the rural financial deepening.

适度扩大粮农经营规模，培育一批稳定的种粮大户，有助于保障粮食安全与推动农业经济发展。从稳定发展角度来看，种粮大户的形成包括两个环节：一是适度扩大粮农经营规模，该过程需要为粮农提供租赁土地、雇佣劳动力和购买服务的资本获取途径——信贷市场；二是稳定粮农的规模生产，该过程需要为粮农提供因规模化、专业化生产和部分生产环节服务外包所带来的风险加剧的规避途径——保险市场。基于此，本课题提出研究“农村金融市场发育对种粮大户形成的影响机理”。首先，通过实地调研论证中国农村金融市场普遍存在“信贷约束”和“保险失灵”问题；其次，通过构建理论框架论证信贷约束和保险失灵对种粮大户形成的影响路径，并利用调研数据进行实证检验；再之，引入门槛变量，分析信贷约束和保险失灵影响种粮大户形成的门槛效应，解释金融约束对不同粮农扩大经营规模的制约作用存在差异的经济原因；最后，从农村金融深化视角提出种粮大户的培育对策。

随着农地、劳动力和农业社会化服务市场的不断完善，农户土地和劳动力等要素短缺，可通过资本在市场上实现一定程度的替代，进而扩大经营规模。然而，受限于小农分散经营的农业格局和粮食生产的低效益，一般粮农的自有资金不足以在市场上大规模转入土地等要素；并且，土地的统一经营与生产环节的服务外包，还将导致农业生产风险的集中与机会主义行为的产生，不利于稳定生产。可见，种粮大户的形成，关键是资金瓶颈的有效突破与经营风险的合理规避。. 据此，本项目提出对农村金融市场发育与种粮大户形成之间的内在逻辑进行研究。具体研究：第一，中国农村金融市场是否存在信贷约束与保险失灵现象；第二，信贷约束制约粮农经营规模的内在机理是什么；第三，保险失灵不利于规模粮农生产稳定性的内在机理是什么；第四，信贷约束和保险失灵缓解激励粮农扩大经营规模是否存在门槛效应；第五，如何通过深化农村金融改革来培育种粮大户。. 针对上述问题，课题组在文献回顾和理论梳理基础上，构建“信贷约束——要素替代与组合——经营规模”和“保险失灵——专业化与分工——稳定规模生产”2个理论分析框架；并结合广东、安徽、湖南、湖北、江西5省份564份农户问卷，设计“经营规模影响信贷需求的Probit模型”、“信贷约束制约经营规模的结构方程模型”、“信贷约束缓解激励粮农经营规模的截面门槛模型”、“规模化经营刺激保险需求的Probit模型”和“保险失灵影响规模粮农生产稳定性的有序Logit模型”等计量模型进行实证分析，进而回答上述5大问题。研究结果及重要进展包括：第一，农村金融市场发育已然成为中国粮农扩大经营规模与规模粮农稳定生产的关键；第二，农村信贷约束是制约粮农经营规模的主要障碍，信贷约束缓解对粮农扩大经营规模的激励作用存在门槛效应；第三，农业保险失灵对规模粮农的生产稳定性有负向影响；第四，缓解信贷约束和保险失灵是培育种粮大户的关键，具体可根据门槛效应实施差异化措施。