EV71型手足口病动力学模型与免疫优化方法研究

Hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) of type EV71 poses a great threat to the health and life safety of children. In view of the huge differences of antibody positive rate and incidence rate of EV71 among different age groups of Chinese, the significant heterogeneity of people's mixed contact, with the epidemic dynamics model method, China's infant education age distribution, activity of people in all ages, social contact heterogeneity of susceptible population will be analyzed. Furthermore, based on the age structure and mixed contact heterogeneity of China's population, the HFMD transmission dynamics model of type EV71 will be established. It can clarify the incidence of HFMD in China, reveal the law of transmission dynamics of type EV71 HFMD, establish the theory and method of vaccination optimization, and lay the foundation for formulating the EV71 HFMD vaccination strategy in China. On this basis, applying the monitoring data set of type EV71 HFMD in Guangdong province to estimate the model parameters, we can assess effective reproduction number of HFMD in Guangdong province, reveal HFMD spreading dynamics mechanism in the Pearl River Delta, put forward HFMD vaccination strategy and control objectives, which can provide reference for HFMD control of type EV71 in Guangdong province.

EV71型手足口病（HFMD）给儿童健康与生命安全带来巨大威胁。本项目针对我国不同年龄人群EV71抗体阳性率与发病率的巨大差异性，人群混合接触的显著异质性，采用传染病动力学模型方法，分析我国婴幼儿教育年龄分布、各年龄段人群活跃度、易感人群社会接触异质性等特征，建立适合我国人口年龄结构和人群混合接触异质性的EV71型HFMD传播动力学模型，阐明我国HFMD的发生率，揭示EV71型HFMD的传播动力学规律，建立疫苗接种的优化理论与方法，为制定我国EV71型HFMD疫苗接种策略奠定基础。在此基础上，应用广东省EV71型HFMD监测数据集估计模型参数，评估广东省HFMD传播的有效再生数，揭示其在珠三角地区的传播动力学机制，提出HFMD疫苗接种策略和控制目标，为广东省EV71型HFMD的控制提供参考。

EV71型手足口病（HFMD）给儿童健康与生命安全带来巨大威胁。我国研发的EV71单价灭活疫苗于2016年上市, 在该疫苗纳入国家儿童常规免疫规划之前，建立科学合理的疫苗接种策略至关重要。为此需要完成以下两个方面基础科学理论的研究：(1)揭示我国HFMD传播动力学规律，评估我国EV71型HFMD的基本再生数与有效再生数。(2) 建立免疫优化分析理论与方法。.EV71型手足口病动力学模型是一种异质性传染病模型。本项目针对我国不同年龄人群EV71抗体阳性率与发病率的巨大差异性，人群混合接触的显著异质性，采用传染病动力学模型方法，分析了我国婴幼儿教育年龄分布、各年龄段人群活跃度、易感人群社会接触异质性等特征。建立了适合我国人口年龄结构和人群混合接触异质性的SIR、SEIR等传染病动力学模型，阐明我国HFMD的发生率，揭示了EV71型HFMD的传播动力学规律，建立疫苗接种的优化理论与方法。在此基础上，应用广东省EV71型HFMD监测数据集估计模型参数，计算广东省HFMD传播的有效再生数，揭示其在珠三角地区的传播动力学机制，为广东省EV71型HFMD的控制提供参考。进一步，研究了包含无症状感染类的异质性多群组传染病数学模型，研究其动力学性质；针对上述无症状感染类的多群组模型及具有年龄结构的多群组模型，分别研究了疫苗接种的优化方法。