基于资源异质性和合作博弈架构下的区域土地-产业结构综合优化配置研究——以江西省为例

Under the guidance of synergetic development theory and comparative advantage theory, the integrated optimal allocation of regional land and industrial structure is an effective way to realize the coordinated evolution of industrial structure and land use in the whole region, and to achieve Pareto optimization for the allocation of regional resources. The project uses the new measurement method of regional resource heterogeneity level, combined with the nonlinear programming method, cooperative game theory, Shapley value method, optimization, simulation, econometric methods, to optimize the allocation of regional land and industry and optimize the allocation of income. By using the above methods, the project establishes the nonlinear programming model and cooperative game framework based on optimal allocation of regional land - industrial structure, studies the impact of resource heterogeneity on regional cooperation cost and net income, evaluates the fairness of income distribution, puts forward the feasible scheme of regional land industry allocation and provides the evaluation and optimization, sets up the integrated allocation of regional land and industrial structure, income distribution scheme and mechanism, and submits it to the function and decision department of Jiangxi. In China, who is in the process of modernization and urbanization, the contradiction between people and land is sharp, and the overcapacity is serious, and local development and regional coordination often have the games. From the perspective of resource heterogeneity and cooperation framework, It is of great significance that this project establish a set of the overall optimization and operation mechanism of land use and industrial structure allocation which will contribute to regional integration, complementary advantages, mutual benefit and win-win for extensive application.

区域土地-产业结构综合优化配置是在协同发展论和比较优势论指导下，实现全区域产业结构与土地利用协同演进，使区域资源要素配置达到帕累托优化的有效方式。本项目运用创新的地区资源异质性水平测度方法，结合非线性规划、合作博弈理论、Shapley值法、优化算法、模拟仿真、计量经济等方法，对区域性土地产业协同配置进行综合优化和收益分配研究，建立区域土地-产业结构优化配置的非线性规划和合作博弈框架，研究资源异质性对地区合作成本和净收益的影响，评价收益分配公平性，提出区域土地产业配置可行方案并给予评价优选，建立区域土地-产业综合配置及收益分配方案与机制并呈交江西职能与决策部门。对于处在现代化和城镇化进程中的中国，人地矛盾尖锐，产能过剩严重，地方发展与区域统筹时有博弈，从资源异质性和合作框架视角，建立一套有助区域一体、优势互补、互利共赢的土地利用与产业结构综合配置方案及运行机制，进行推广应用，具有积极意义。

因地制宜统筹区域资源禀赋和经济社会发展差异，促进生产、生活、生态用地空间的协调建设，成为区域土地优化配置的重要考量。构造了改进FML指数，测算了长江中游城市群城市土地绿色利用效率和建设用地错配指数，发现2008-2018年长江中游城市群土地利用效率呈“U”型，均值为0.907，处于相对无效率水平，环鄱阳湖城市群效率均值最低，为0.930，建设用地错配的城市数目达13个。测算了耕地保护、建设用地集约利用系统协调发展水平，综合评价了江西省土地利用多功能变化状况，发现中部地区的协调发展度稳步上升，由0.542上升至0.797，从中度协调提升到高度协调；江西省土地利用综合功能向上增长，由0.2044提高0.8133，生态功能率先进入良好水平。进一步评价并动态修正了南昌市三生空间的适宜性水平，利用NSGA-III算法，进行了主体功能分区和多目标优化模拟，发现，南昌市土地利用结构有序度缓慢降低，土地利用效率处于中等水平，生产适宜性空间占比50%，呈现沿主要道路聚集的特征，生活适宜区占10%左右，具有“大分散、集聚”的分异特征，生态空间适宜区占40%-50%，呈现中低周高特征，优化后的土地配置结构更符合规划要求。综合测度了农村宜居性指数和宜业性指数及其耦合协调度，研究了农村宜居宜业性对农户居业空间行为模式选择和家庭收入的影响，发现江西农村宜业性水平落后于宜居性，宜居宜业耦合度高的村庄占21.1%，城郊村庄的宜居宜业优于其他类型村庄，宜居宜业性对选择纯农村居业模式农户家庭收入有显著影响，城乡两栖模式是农户居业的最佳空间行为模式，农户城市居留意愿强烈，占比81.1%，不到20%的农户愿意返乡。综合评价了江西的减贫成效，发现江西省罗霄山连片特困区17个贫困县的减贫成效较高，江西在减贫管理和乡村发展上取得了一系列颇具推广价值的特色管理机制。