基于层级式驾驶模拟实验的新手驾驶人驾驶能力成长机理研究

The study focuses on the driving abilities of novice drivers. A interactive feedback theory framework between driving behavior and driving ability is put forward. A hierarchical driving simulation experiment method is used to design the driving experiment scenarios which include low-risk, mid-risk and high-risk levels. Driving simulation experiments are conducted to assess the drivers’ basic vehicle control ability, dynamic cognition and decision-making ability as well as the emergent collision avoidance ability. Each driver’s years of driving, frequency of driving and gender are considered as potential factors in studying the novice drivers’ driving behaviors, visual behaviors and driving psychology systematically. The novice drivers’ driving abilities are assessed by comparing the driving task demand and its completion result, and the development pattern of novice drivers’ driving abilities and the influence mechanism of main factors can be obtained by analyzing the driving ability improvement feature over time under different driving frequencies. Finally, specific suggestions from the promotion of driving abilities training, the feedback of training in driving school, the management of drivers and the formulation of traffic safety policies are provided regarding to the driving ability deficiencies of drivers in different diving skill growth stages.

以新手驾驶人驾驶能力作为研究对象，构建驾驶行为和驾驶能力的交互反馈理论框架，采用层级式驾驶模拟实验方法，设计包含低、中、高三个风险层级驾驶任务的驾驶模拟实验场景，以驾驶人的车辆基本控制能力、动态认知决策能力和危险紧急避撞能力作为驾驶能力评估内容，开展驾驶模拟实验，考虑驾龄、驾驶频率和性别等驾驶人自身属性特征，系统性研究驾驶人属性因素对于新手驾驶人的驾驶行为、视觉行为和驾驶心理的影响，通过对比驾驶任务需求以及驾驶任务完成效果对新手驾驶人的驾驶能力进行评估，分析不同驾驶频率下驾驶能力成长的时间特性，得到新手驾驶员驾驶能力的成长规律和主要因素作用下的影响机理，最终针对新手驾驶人在不同成长阶段的驾驶能力缺陷，从能力训练提升、驾校培训反馈、驾驶人群管理和交通安全政策制定等方面提出针对性的建议。

我国新手驾驶人数量庞大，我国驾龄不满1年的驾驶人约占9.27%；其次，大量新手驾驶人无驾驶经验，成为“本本族”，约1.16亿驾驶人的汽车驾驶频率较低，甚至长时间不驾驶。项目针对新手驾驶人的驾驶能力（客观驾驶能力）开展研究，首先对新手驾驶人的主观驾驶能力进行问卷调查，调查结果表明新手驾驶员对于自身的观察能力、感知能力、判断能力、操作能力都存在高估的情况。进而对新手驾驶人的客观驾驶能力进行了驾驶模拟实验测试，测试驾驶人面对手机干扰下驾驶、通过城市铁路道口、城市交叉口两难区决策、高速公路标志视认等驾驶任务时是否能够有能力应付，结果表明驾龄、驾驶频率和驾驶时长对于驾驶稳定性都有显著性影响。其中驾龄对于驾驶速度稳定性、车辆跟驰距离稳定性和车辆跟驰车头时距有显著性影响；驾驶频率对于车辆跟驰距离稳定性有显著性影响；驾驶时长对于车辆跟驰距离稳定性和车辆跟驰车头时距有显著性影响；新手驾驶人也难以处理城市铁路道口和信号交叉口处的复杂决策问题，不过在语音预警提示的情况会有更好发挥，说明语音预警系统对于驾驶员的安全驾驶有积极作用，因此，项目组开发了闯红灯智能声音预警系统，从闯红灯概率计算及数据库建立（即闯红灯车辆识别算法）、三阶段决策预警、防撞保护策略等方面为新手驾驶员开发安全辅助设备。