中国电动汽车未来发展规模、综合效益和激励政策分析

This study will focus on the development of China's electric vehicles (EV), research on the market penetration pattern, forecast future scale, analyze the overall benefits of energy, environment, public health and macroeconomic impact in provincial level, and simulate quantitatively the expected effect of incentive policies. 1) To identify factors that influence consumer decisions on buying EVs by vehicle sub-segments; to employ a hierarchical multi-element Logit model method to establish the Vehicle Choice Model with vehicle type and provinces are classified and research on the market penetration pattern in different provinces; with the development of vehicle stock forecasting model and the research on vehicle survival pattern, to forecast the EV future development scale by province and by sub-vehicle type. 2) To take out the analysis of oil replacement and life cycle greenhouse gas emission reduction benefits of EV development by utilizing the Life-cycle Analysis Model; by improving the energy-emissions-air quality-health-economic comprehensive evaluation model platform, and defining the EV technology into residential private car and transportation services sectors of the C-REM model, to analyze the overall impact of environmental pollutant emissions, regional air quality, the health level of residents and macroeconomic of EV development by province. 3) Using the above model to quantitatively analyze the market scale and comprehensive benefits of various EV incentive policies, and put forward the policy suggestions to promote the development of EV in China.

将围绕我国电动汽车(EV)发展，研究市场渗透规律，预测发展规模，分省测算能源环境、居民健康和宏观经济影响，量化分析激励政策的预期效果。1）分车型识别出EV消费者购买决策影响因素；基于随机效用理论，采用分层多元Logit模型方法，建立全国分省分汽车类型车辆选择模型,研究EV市场渗透规律；结合分省汽车保有量预测模型和汽车生存规律研究，实现分省分车型EV未来发展规模预测。2）运用全生命周期分析模型，分析EV石油替代和全生命周期温室气体减排效益；完善分省能源-排放-空气质量-健康-经济的综合评估模型REACH平台，将EV技术刻画进入中国分省能源经济模型（C-REM）居民私家车和交通服务部门，进行分省EV发展的环境污染物排放、区域空气质量、居民健康水平和宏观经济效益的综合效益分析。3）运用前述模型定量分析各种EV激励政策的市场规模和综合效益方面的效果，结合国际经验分析提出促进我国EV发展的政策建议。

本项目围绕我国电动汽车(EV)发展，研究了市场渗透规律，预测发展规模，测算了能源和碳排放影响，量化分析激励政策的预期效果。1）分车型识别出EV消费者购买决策影响因素；基于随机效用理论，采用分层多元Logit模型方法，建立分汽车类型车辆选择模型,研究EV市场渗透规律；结合分省汽车保有量预测模型和汽车生存规律研究，实现分省分车型EV未来发展规模预测。2）运用全生命周期分析模型，分析EV石油替代和全生命周期温室气体减排效益。3）运用前述模型定量分析各种EV激励政策的市场规模和综合效益方面的效果，结合国际经验分析提出促进我国EV发展的政策建议。项目主要结果包括，重点围绕电动汽车，针对消费者选择和市场渗透规律、微观全生命周期能耗和GHG排放表现、宏观能源环境资源影响等三个重要问题构建了相应的分析模型和评估方法并进行了全面的案例分析，实现了对未来中国电动汽车发展的“经济-能源-环境-资源”多视角综合研究。基于上述研究，提出了促进中国电动汽车发展的政策建议。研究成果主要包括第一标注12篇SSCI或SCI检索论文、第二标注6篇中英文期刊论文，以及3本专著。