时空多尺度视角下城乡非建设用地转用的分异机制及其管控对策研究——以苏州为例

Urban and rural non-construction land which main body include mountains, rivers, forests, farmlands, lakes and grasslands has been extensively developed and constructed. It brings us increasingly prominent ecological and human settlements problems. What are the time periods and spatial differences of urban and rural non-construction land and its structural types in the process of conversion? What are the differentiation mechanisms of influence and drive? How to effectively manage and deal with the conversion? In response to the above scientific questions, Suzhou is selected as a case study. The databases of urban and rural non-construction land and influence factors from 1990 to 2020 are established with remote sensing imagery data sources and so on. Based on the spatial-temporal and multiscale interactive perspectives, research framework of differentiation-mechanism-response is built. Firstly, using the land use transfer matrix, moving window and exploratory spatial data analysis methods, the scale structure, landscape and spatial association are revealed effectively from the aspects of administrative levels, granularity scales and time periods. Secondly, differentiation mechanisms of influence and drive are explored with geographically and temporally weighted regression model. Thirdly, management and control strategies for overall and partition classification are proposed. The research results are expected to deepen the spatial-temporal laws and theories of non-construction land conversion from the aspects of urban-rural evolution and internal spatial structure, and provide scientific basis and decision making reference for the differentiated control and governance and even the spatial planning of national land.

以“山水林田湖草”为主体的城乡非建设用地被大量开发建设，导致日益突出的生态和人居环境问题。城乡非建设用地及其结构类型在转用过程中具有怎样的时间阶段和空间差异规律？影响与驱动分异演化的机制是什么？如何有效管控应对？针对上述科学问题，选取苏州为案例地，利用遥感影像等数据资源建立1990—2020年城乡非建设用地及影响因素数据库，基于转用时空异质性和多尺度交互嵌套视角，构建“分异—机制—对策”框架开展研究：①借助土地利用转移矩阵、移动窗口和探索性数据分析方法，从行政层级、粒度尺度和时间周期等层面，揭示转用的规模结构、景观和空间关联等分异规律特征；②利用时空地理加权回归模型，挖掘影响和驱动分异机制；③提出整体和分区分类的管控对策。研究成果有望从城乡演变和内部空间结构层面深化非建设用地转用的时空规律和理论，为其差别化的管控和治理乃至国土空间规划提供科学依据和决策参考。

城乡非建设用地作为城乡生态空间的主要载体和依托，对维护生态安全、促进人居环境改善具有基础性作用。本课题基于时空异质性和多尺度交互嵌套视角，选取苏州为案例地，建立空间信息和统计数据库，采用“分异-机制-对策”框架开展研究：①借助土地利用转移矩阵、移动窗口和探索性数据分析方法，揭示苏州1995—2020年非建设用地转用的时空分异特征。结果表明非建设用地转用呈现为初始平缓、快速缩减和稳定恢复3个阶段，以耕地为主体持续减少，水域面积略有增加。非建设用地转用由城镇向乡村地带缓慢过渡，耕地主要流向城镇用地，水域和林地则多流向农村居民点。整体呈现“一环三线多点”，沪苏锡通道沿线及太湖东部、长江南岸是其转用的热点区域。②利用地理探测器，深入挖掘城乡非建设用地转用的作用机理。社会经济因素是推动非建设用地转用的主要影响因素，其中公共服务对非建设用地整体、耕地和水域转用的解释力最大，城镇用地比重、人口数量分别为草地、未利用土地转用的主要影响因子，林地转用受自然地理影响程度较高。交互探测结果表明双因子交互作用多呈现为非线性增强和双因子增强。③提出整体和分区分类的管控对策。整体层面应严格保护和开发利用、加强耕地恢复和修复、构建蓝绿交互的生态网络空间体系、推广落实逆向规划；分区层面，重点城镇管控区需强化政府干预、切实管控建设用地，北部沿江平原地区应沿江划定生态控制线，西部环太湖生态管控区可引导人口向城镇适度集中并划定林地生态保护红线，南部太湖水网平原管控区建立水域耕地生态补偿机制。研究成果从城乡演变和内部空间结构层面深化非建设用地转用的时空规律和理论，丰富了城乡非建设用地研究的时空多尺度解析思路和方法，有利于生态安全体系的构建和人居环境的优化提升。