经济新常态下经济增长的趋势性与收敛性研究

At present, China’s economic growth has entered a period of steering the new normal, which requires us to have a clear understanding of the expected trajectory and dynamic mechanism of China’s economic growth in the future. First of all, we shall describe the main trends and dynamic characteristics of China’s economic growth under the new normal from the perspective of growth-oriented economic cycles and long-term economic waves, and then establish an internal correlation mechanism between actual economic cycles and financial cycles. Secondly, we shall get the convergence rate, convergence level and the power source to get out of the “middle-income trap” according to the quantitative measurement of the convergence conditions and convergence ways of economic growth. Finally, the local steady-state properties of the economic convergence in China shall be described and verified according to the different convergence levels, and the dynamic transfer process between the steady state will be modeled and simulated. This project will integrate short-term volatility and long-term growth, market mechanism and macro-control, local steady-state and long-term equilibrium, static comparison and dynamic convergence, fully focused on the impact of uncertainty and external shocks on economic growth and verify the effectiveness, sensitivity and robustness of economic policies. This project will clearly outline the dynamic process and the cyclical fluctuation model of China’s economic growth under the blueprint of “Two Centenary Goals”, so as to provide theoretical basis, empirical evidence and decision support for making effective macroeconomic management decisions.

目前我国经济发展已经进入引领新常态时期，这要求我们对未来我国经济增长预期轨迹和动态机制有清晰的认识。首先，我们将从增长型经济周期和经济长波角度描述新常态下我国经济增长的主体趋势和动态特征，建立实际经济周期与金融周期的内在关联机制；其次，根据经济增长的收敛性条件和收敛方式的定量测度，可以获得我国经济增长的收敛速度、收敛水平，以及脱离“中等收入陷阱”的动力来源；最后，根据不同收敛水平，描述和检验我国经济收敛水平的局部稳态性质，并对稳态之间的动态迁移过程给出模型刻画和仿真模拟。本项目将综合短期波动和长期增长、市场机制和宏观调控、局部稳态和长期均衡、静态比对和动态收敛，充分关注不确定性和外部冲击对经济增长的影响,验证经济政策的有效性、灵敏性和稳健性。本项目将清楚地勾画出两个一百年奋斗蓝图下中国经济增长的动态过程和周期波动模式，为制定有效的宏观经济管理决策提供理论基础、经验证据和决策支持。

经济新常态背景下我国经济增长出现了区位下移和波动趋缓的现象，引领经济新常态要求对经济增长的预期轨迹、形态变迁和内生机理具有深刻的认识和把握。首先，本项目从国际层面刻画了世界各国经济增长的趋势性和收敛性特征，从理论和现实视角论证了经济收敛的阶段性变化规律及其核心驱动因素，指明了坚持创新驱动和提升全要素生产率是跨越“中等收入陷阱”和突破局部稳态以实现高水平收敛的动力来源；其次，本项目深入挖掘了我国经济增长趋势性和收敛性的宏观表象、省级分异和微观基础，从空间溢出效应、集团收敛和适度金融发展等角度为推动区域协调发展、接续经济增长长波和实现共同富裕提供了重要的思想洞见；第三，从长期趋势的格局引领经济增长，从短期波动的视角稳定经济周期，从“杠杆率”、“金融风险”、“外部冲击”、“政策溢出”等维度注重风险防范，本项目以极其开阔的学术视野，明确指出当前和未来中国经济发展必须兼顾潜在增长能力的挖掘、短期经济波动的抑制以及多种风险的治理，紧紧把握住中国经济发展的主要矛盾并围绕国家中长期发展规划，为宏观调控和经济治理提供了重要的目标指引；第四，健全目标优化、分工合理和高效协同的宏观经济治理体系是稳定经济增长速度和提升发展质量的重要保障，本项目对经济政策的周期效应、规则效应、乘数效应和溢出效应进行精准识别，对财政政策和货币政策的周期匹配模式和协调配合方式进行深入研究，为经济政策如何进行逆周期调控和跨周期设计提供了重要的对策建议，为稳增长、防风险和调结构打下了扎实的政策调控基础。因此，本项目清楚地勾画出两个一百年奋斗蓝图下中国经济增长的动态过程和周期波动模式，为制定有效的宏观经济管理决策提供理论基础、经验证据和决策支持。