贸易开放与企业创新：全球化与经济增长动力研究

Innovation and Opening-up are highlighted as the most important ingredients in the development roadmap in the 13th Five-Year Plan of China. Economic theory also proves that innovation and trade liberalization are sources of economic growth. To implement the innovation-driven development, we have to put it into the context of globalization and economic opening-up. So this project aims to understand how trade globalization induces scientific innovation and technology advance, and promoting economic development as a consequence. More concretely, based on a large scale of data on firm production, innovation, and trade, we will use data analysis, econometric modeling, and in-the-field survey, to answer questions in three aspects. First, what are the mechanisms for international trade to influence firms’ incentive to innovate? How to quantify the contribution of each channel? Secondly, innovation incurs huge amount of irreversible “sunk cost”, therefore subjects to trade policies (and industrial policies in a more general sense). So how to testify the magnitude and direction of such influence of various policies? Finally, how does trade liberalization affect local economies in their growth and labor market outcomes, through the channel of technology transfer and inducing innovation?

“创新”和“开放”是“十三五”规划提出的两项重大发展理念，经济学理论也证明研发创新和贸易开放是经济增长的动力源泉。实施创新发展战略，离不开开放的经济贸易环境。因此，本项目试图理解贸易全球化如何促进企业科技创新和技术进步，进而推动经济发展。具体而言，本项目立足于大量企业层面的生产、贸易、和研发创新数据。通过数据分析、计量模型和实地调研,回答三个层次的问题：首先，贸易开放从哪些机制出发对企业创新产生影响？各种机制分别的贡献有多大？其次，创新研发事先投入巨大，成为沉没成本，因此倍受贸易政策环境的影响（广义上也包括产业政策的影响）。如何从理论和实证上去验证这些影响的方向和程度，是我们关心的问题。最后，贸易开放在地区层面上如何通过技术转移和促进创新来影响经济发展和劳动力市场。

研发创新和贸易开放是经济增长的动力源泉。十九届五中全会,十三五和十四五都分别强调“坚持创新驱动发展”和构建“更高水平的开放”。实施创新发展战略，离不开开放的经济贸易环境。因此，本课题将“创新”和“开放”这两项重大发展理念，放到开放经济和大国博弈的视角下进行研究。试图理解贸易全球化如何促进企业科技创新和技术进步，进而推动经济发展。具体而言，通过构建企业研发模型，量化分析大量企业层面的生产、贸易、和研发创新数据，以及大量的企业实地调研，回答了三个层次的问题：首先，贸易开放从哪些机制出发对企业创新产生影响？各种机制分别的贡献有多大？其次，创新研发事先投入巨大，成为沉没成本，因此倍受不确定的贸易政策的影响（广义上也包括产业政策的影响）。课题提出一个实证方法对贸易政策不确定性对企业创新的影响进行了验证。最后，全球化近年来遭遇“逆流”，课题对理解策略性贸易政策和中美贸易冲突对技术封锁、技术转移、产业发展和不同技能水平工人的就业提出了新的证据。