宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同向实效应研究

In the reflection of the financial crisis, Macroprudential Policy has been paid more and more attention. And The coordination of Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy has also begun to attract attention. Based on the reality of that finance disconnects from the real economy and turns to virtual economy,industrial growth lacks vitality and the aim of improving the framework for macro-prudential policies and monetary policies.The applicant consider that "double-pillar policy" should promote t “double-stable goals” of economy and finance. The effect of synergy service on the real economy is studied in order to make a breakthrough in the scientific nature of the framework and the effectiveness of policy coordination.. This project is based on the index system of "double pillar policy" and "double stable target"( That is, Monetary Policy index system involves four indicators with two dimensions, Macroprudential Policy index system involves 14 commonly used policy instruments, the macroeconomic stability index system involves six first-level indicators and 10 second-level indicators with four dimensions, and the financial stability evaluation index system involves nine dimensions and 29 sub-items), The research process is guided by the establishment of a synergistic mechanism between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy, and will achieve the ultimate goal of improving the macro-economic policy framework and maintaining the stability of the financial system.. The empirical analysis centers on the interaction between single policy tool and target, the effect of "double-pillar policy" service on the real economy, the transmission mechanism and feedback effect between "double-stable goals" and the resolution of contradictions between "double-stable goals". on the one hand, we test that the coordination of macroprudential policy and monetary policy affect macro-economic stability and financial stability, and explore policy combination models on the basis of data of major economies and PVAR. On the other hand, we use the MS-VAR to identify the internal structural friction of the dual policy and employ the signal model to screen and select external shocks from the reality of China. Under the dual policy coordination mode in different environments (economic and financial environment), We identify the balances of the aims of “double-stable goals” and find out the policy of balance of internal and external factors. In the end, supplement and improvement of the macro-prudential policy framework is put forward, and some suggestions about building and perfecting the regulatory mechanism of "double pillar policy" to support real economy is also put forward.

在对金融危机的反思中，宏观审慎政策逐步受到重视，其与货币政策的协同性也开始受到关注。基于金融脱实向虚、实业增长乏力的现实和“健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架”金融体制改革目标的提出，申请人考虑“双支柱政策”应保持经济金融“双稳定”，研究其协同服务于实体经济的效应，以期在研究框架的科学性和政策协同向实的有效性上有所突破。. 本项目立足于“双支柱政策”与“双稳定目标”的指标体系（即货币政策指标体系涉及数量型与价格型2个维度的4个指标、宏观审慎政策指标体系涉及常用的14个政策工具、宏观经济稳定指标体系涉及4个维度的6个一级指标和10个二级指标、金融稳定性评估指标体系涉及9维度29个子项指标），分析双支柱政策配合模式及其对实体经济、风险的调控能力和效果，进一步从金融稳定与宏观经济稳定的失衡分析逆向探析宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协同设计。项目研究以建立货币政策与宏观审慎政策协同机制为导向，完善金融政策架构，维护经济和金融稳定，实现“双支柱政策”协同服务于实体经济。. 本项目的实证分析依次围绕单一政策工具与目标间互动关系、 “双支柱政策”协同向实效应分析、“双稳定目标”间传递机制与反馈效应以及“双稳定”目标的矛盾化解等问题展开。一方面，依据主要经济体的数据，借助于动态面板模型检验宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同对宏观经济与金融稳定的价值贡献，探析各种情景（经济金融环境）下双政策配合模式；另一方面，从中国现实出发，使用马尔科夫区制转换模型辨识“双政策”内部结构摩擦，引入信号模型探索冲突化解方案，分析“双稳定”目标的失衡问题，找出影响政策权衡的因素。基于以上分析和问题发现，补充和完善宏观审慎政策框架，提出宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同的调控策略，以及健全“双支柱”政策协同向实的实现机制。

在金融提升服务实体能力的时代要求下，“健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架”践行了金融为民的初心，彰显了金融机构的使命担当。而本研究对于宏观审慎政策、货币政策如何协同维护经济金融稳定问题的解答，正是围绕这一现实需求所展开，既有突出的前瞻性，也有积极的实践性。本项目的主要研究内容：（1）展开宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同向实的现状解读；（2）展开宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同向实的情景分析及效应检验；（3）展开“双支柱政策”影响“双稳定目标”实现的结构制衡分析；（4）构建和完善宏观审慎政策与货币政策协同向实的调控机制。本项目的重要结果：（1）模拟复杂的经济金融环境，从理论和实证角度证明了“双政策”协同向实的有效性；（2）基于宏微观视角，发现了宏观经济稳定与金融稳定的互动关系及金融稳定的内部关联性；（3）识别了影响政策效应向实的外部因素，如金融开放、数字金融及科技金融发展等；（4）提出了双支柱政策组合方案并将更多经济金融不稳定要素及宏观经济政策纳入调控策略中。本项目的关键数据是基于国际货币基金组织数据库、世界银行数据库、中国中央银行数据库中的“双支柱”政策指标体系数据、宏观经济稳定指标体系数据及金融稳定性评估指标体数据。本项目的科学意义：（1）深入研究“双支柱政策”协同向实的调控效果，通过补充和完善指标体系，建立和改进计量模型，为“双支柱政策调控框架”延伸了新的探索空间；（2）深入探讨“双支柱政策”与“双稳定目标”之间的关联性，以及经济与金融稳定目标间的制衡关系，夯实了金融回归实体经济本源的理论基础，丰富了宏观审慎政策与货币政策框架的理论体系；（3）探索宏观审慎政策与货币政策两个政策之间的协同性，能够为补充和完善金融政策体系提供有益的参考。