多灾种农业气象灾害综合风险动态评估研究-以吉林省中西部玉米产区为例

In this project, taking the mid-west maize-producing areas in Jilin province as the case study, the drought, flood and low-temperature, which are three major agro-meteorological disasters affecting and restricting yield of maize, were chose as this study object. Based on the different growth stages of the crop and the soil - plant - atmosphere system, according to the natural disaster risk formation mechanism, by studying the basic theory and key technology which includes the spatio-temporal combination law of the multi-agro-metrological and the integrated risk formation mechanism, the hazard dynamic identification and assessment index system and quantitative methods, and the dynamic assessment methods of the vulnerability and the integrated risk, a new generation methods, which is based on the whole crop growth process, of the dynamic assessment for integrated disaster risk for the multi-agro-meteorological hazards and the comprehensive risk management and adaptation countermeasures system will be build. It combined the regional weather and climate patterns, the crops growing model and risk assessment model of disaster. The research results can be extended to other agricultural regions of China, and provide the theoretical basis and technical support for the agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, crop layout planning, the agricultural insurance, food production planning, the eco-agriculture construction and the sustainable development. And it is of great significance for improving the research level of country`s agro-meteorological risk and the ability of the integrated risk prevention and emergency response, as well as achieving the goal of relief and mitigation the agro-meteorological disaster.

本研究拟以吉林省中西部玉米产区为研究示范区，选取影响和制约玉米产量的干旱、洪涝和低温冷害三种主要农业气象灾害为研究对象，以作物不同生长阶段为主线，从土壤-作物-大气系统出发，依据自然灾害风险形成机理，通过进行多灾种农业气象灾害时空组合规律与综合风险形成机理、致灾因子动态识别与评估指标体系及量化方法、脆弱性动态评估方法及综合风险动态评估耦合模型等基础理论问题和关键技术研究，建立基于区域气象与气候模式、作物生长模型和灾害风险评估模型相结合的新一代作物全过程的多灾种农业气象灾害综合风险动态评估技术和综合风险管理与适应对策体系。其研究成果可推广到我国其它农业地区，为农业防灾减灾、农业减灾规划、作物布局规划、农业保险、粮食增产规划、农业生态建设和可持续发展提供理论依据和技术支撑，对于提高我国的农业气象灾害风险的研究水平和综合风险防范与应急减灾能力，实现科学防灾和主动减灾的目标具有重要意义。

摘要：本研究拟以吉林省中西部玉米产区为研究示范区，选取影响和制约玉米产量的干旱、洪涝和低温冷害三种主要农业气象灾害为研究对象，以作物不同生长阶段为主线，从土壤-作物-大气系统出发，依据自然灾害风险形成机理，通过进行多灾种农业气象灾害时空组合规律与综合风险形成机理、致灾因子动态识别与评估指标体系及量化方法、脆弱性动态评估方法及综合风险动态评估耦合模型等基础理论问题和关键技术研究，建立基于区域气象与气候模式、作物生长模型和灾害风险评估模型相结合的新一代作物全过程的多灾种农业气象灾害综合风险动态评估技术和综合风险管理与适应对策体系。其研究成果可推广到我国其它农业地区，为农业防灾减灾、农业减灾规划、作物布局规划、农业保险、粮食增产规划、农业生态建设和可持续发展提供理论依据和技术支撑，对于提高我国的农业气象灾害风险的研究水平和综合风险防范与应急减灾能力，实现科学防灾和主动减灾的目标具有重要意义。