基于灾害风险评估的历史园林保护研究——以苏州古典园林为例

Historic gardens rich features and the profound cultural heritage show unique artistic charm, and is a valuable human historical and cultural heritage. The value of understanding and the concept of protection is necessary carrier to its heritage. However, in the evolution of its growth and development, the historic gardens is facing such as earthquakes and geological disasters, extreme weather disasters, floods, lightning, fire, weathering, environmental hazards, erosion and other direct or potential disasters, thus undermining and affect historic gardens historical value. Therefore, protection of historic gardens is limited to a small number of single-hazard assessment and the establishment of the protection system, which did not consider the establishment of the joint impact of multi-hazard protection methods from the disaster risk assessment perspective. In this study historic gardens is to analyze the causal factors, and AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was constructed by all kinds of disaster risk comprehensive assessment system. Comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation protection methods and measures has been targeted and proposed. Quantitative assessment of historic gardens may face a comprehensive disaster risk, which provide an objective basis and foundation for the scientific disaster prevention and protection, and expand the scope of protection of historic gardens. Large areas of the research results can be applied to the historic gardens of Suzhou Classical Gardens and other areas, as well as the protection of cultural heritage, scientific and practical significance.

历史园林以丰富的特征和深厚的文化积淀显示出独特的艺术魅力，是人类宝贵的历史文化遗产，价值认识和保护观念是将其传承的必要载体。然而，在其发展演变过程中，曾经或正在面临如地震与地质灾害、极端气象灾害、火灾、洪水、雷击、风化、环境公害侵蚀等灾害直接或潜在的影响，从而破坏和影响其历史文化价值。但是，目前针对历史园林的保护仅局限于少数单灾种预防和保护制度的建立，没有从灾害风险评估角度考虑多灾种联合影响和综合保护方法的建立。本课题以历史园林为研究对象，分析其致灾因素，采用AHP-模糊综合评价模型，构建其受各类灾害风险的评估体系，提出具有针对性的综合防灾减灾保护方法和措施。以定量方式有效地评估历史园林可能面临综合灾害风险，从而为科学防灾保护提供客观的依据和基础，并拓展了历史园林保护的研究范畴。课题研究成果可应用于苏州古典园林和其他地区的历史园林，以及文化遗产保护的大领域中，具有科学和实践意义。

历史园林以丰富的特征和深厚的文化积淀显示出独特的艺术魅力，是人类宝贵的历史文化遗产，价值认识和保护观念是将其传承的必要载体。然而，在其发展演变过程中，曾经或正在面临如地震与地质灾害、极端气象灾害、火灾、洪水、雷击、风化、环境公害侵蚀等灾害直接或潜在的影响，从而破坏和影响其历史文化价值。项目从灾害综合风险评估的角度对历史园林展开研究，为科学防灾保护提供客观的依据和基础。. 首先分析历史园林的灾害因素，在对灾害风险评估及相关理论研究的基础上，凝练出历史园林灾害风险的主要特征，提出历史园林风险评估因子、脆弱性、风险等级划分和暴露种类等内容。其次建立基于指标体系的综合灾害风险评估模型，选取指标，确立历史园林灾害综合风险指标体系，通过标准化处理园林的基本数据，形成符合历史园林灾害风险评估模型要求的数据集，计算出致灾因子指数、暴露指数、脆弱性指数和防灾减灾能力指数，进而得到综合风险值。然后收集苏州古典园林的实际数据，应用模型对样本进行灾害风险评估。最后探索历史园林综合防灾的概念、范畴和基本体系框架，确立历史园林防灾减灾的目标和重点，从抗灾、防灾、措施、政策方面总结历史园林防灾减灾保护对策，并有针对性开展历史园林防灾减灾技术的研究。