民营化、风险承担与企业绩效研究

Prior studies have shown that entrepreneurs' willingness to take risks in the pursuit of profitable opportunities is a fundamental underpinning of long term economic growth. This project analyzes the risk choice during the process of privatization of state-owned enterprises, and the economic consequences of risk choice. We answer the following four questions: First, whether can the privatization promote the level of corporate risk taking in investment decision making? Second, is the incentive effect of risk choice rooted in political views or managerial view in theory if the privatization does promote the level of risk taking? Third, how do the institutions of property rights protection determine the effects of risk taking in the process of privatization? Fourth, whether can corporate risk taking promote the efficiency of resource allocation and corporate performance? This project provides new evidence from the perspective of privatization for the determinants of corporate risk taking, and identifies a new channel from the perspective of corporate risk taking through which privatization can promote the performance of privatized firms. Meanwhile, this project expands and enriches the privatization theories of political view and managerial view, and provides firm-level evidence for how different institutions affect economic development when analyzing how these institutions affect corporate risk taking during the process of privatization. This project is conducive to clarify the controversy from the perspective of privatization on "The State-Owned Economy Expands and the Private Economy Shrinks", and to provide a theoretical basis and policy reference to further promote and deepen the reform of privatization of state-owned enterprises in China.

已有研究表明，企业因追逐有利可图的投资机会而承担风险是经济长期增长的基础。本课题研究国有企业民营化过程中的风险选择行为及其经济后果。我们具体拟回答以下四个问题：第一，民营化是否能提高企业投资决策中的风险承担水平？第二，如果民营化确实能提高风险承担水平，那么在理论上是源于政治观还是经理人观？第三，不同的产权保护制度如何影响民营化的风险承担效应？第四，企业风险承担能否提高资本配置效率和企业绩效？本课题从民营化的视角为企业风险承担的影响因素提供新的证据，同时从企业风险选择的视角为民营化通过何种具体渠道影响企业绩效提供新的解释。而且，本课题能够拓展和深化民营化理论中的政治观和经理人观，并通过分析不同制度对民营化的风险承担效应的影响，为这些制度如何影响经济发展提供微观层面的证据。本课题在实践上有助于从民营化的视角澄清有关"国进民退"的争议，为进一步深化国有企业的民营化改革提供理论依据和政策参考。

本课题研究国有企业民营化过程中的风险选择行为及其经济后果。具体来说，我们回答了以下四个问题：第一，民营化是否能够提高企业投资决策中的风险承担水平？第二，为什么民营化能够提高企业的风险承担水平？第三，不同的产权保护制度如何影响民营化的风险承担效应？第四，民营化后企业风险承担的经济后果是什么，是否有助于提高资本配置效率和企业绩效？我们以中国A股上市公司为样本，使用双重差分模型，研究结果发现：第一，国有企业在民营化后风险承担水平显著提高。第二，风险承担水平的提高同时源于政治观和经理人观。第三，在契约制度不同的地区，民营化的这种风险承担效应没有显著差异，而在产权制度更好的地区，民营化的风险承担效应显著更强。第四，风险承担水平的提高显著增加了企业的销售增长率和市场价值。本课题的研究不仅从民营化的视角为风险承担提供了新的解释，同时也为不同产权保护制度的作用提供了微观层面的新证据。同时，课题的研究结果还有助于澄清有关“国进民退”的争议，并对进一步深化国有企业的民营化以及完善民营企业产权保护具有重要的政策含义。