风险承担视阈下货币政策影响企业创新的机理与效应研究

Monetary policy could affect the risk-taking of banks, capital market and enterprise, and meanwhile corporate innovation has a characteristic of high risk. Thus corporate innovation has a close relationship with monetary policy. This project is based on the newly developed theory on monetary policy transmission channel by bank risk-taking, and studies the mechanism of monetary policy's effect on corporate innovation by influencing the risk-taking behavior of banks, capital market investors and companies. Unbalanced dynamic panel model and system GMM are used to empirically test the influence of monetary policy's effect on corporate innovation through risk-taking, and analyze characteristics and factors of the effectiveness. The innovations of this project are as follows: ① Existing studies barely focus on monetary policy's influence on corporate innovation, But this project studies the influence of monetary policy on corporate innovation using risk-taking as the intermediary variable, which fills the blank field on this regard.②This article expands the single bank risk-taking channel into a channel system including bank risk-taking, investor risk-taking and corporate risk-taking, and expands the risk-taking transmission channel from "monetary policy →risk-taking" to "risk-taking→corporate innovation", which deepens and extends monetary policy risk-taking transmission channel theory. ③The article finds there are differences between the effect of risk-taking channel on corporate innovation investment and the effect of risk-taking channel on normal corporate investment, and illuminates the generative mechanism of this difference, and will provide Empirical evidences。

货币政策会影响银行、资本市场和企业的风险承担行为，而企业创新又有高风险特征，所以货币政策对企业创新应该有重要的影响。本项目通过横向和纵向拓展新近发展起来的货币政策风险承担传导渠道理论，研究货币政策通过影响银行风险承担、资本市场风险承担和企业风险承担进而影响企业创新的内在机理和实际效应，并分析这种影响效应的特征及调节因素。创新之处在于：①现有文献极少关注货币政策对企业创新的影响，更没有从风险承担视角来研究这种影响，本项目以风险承担为中间传导变量研究货币政策对企业创新的影响，填补了这方面的研究空白；②将单一的银行风险承担渠道拓展为包括银行风险承担、资本市场风险承担和企业风险承担在内的传导渠道系统，并将风险承担传导渠道从“货币政策→风险承担”延伸到“风险承担→企业创新”，从而拓展了货币政策风险承担传导渠道理论；③首次阐明货币政策通过风险承担对创新投资和一般投资的影响差异及其原因，并进行实证检验。

当前我国正处于经济高速增长向高质量发展的转型期，本项目以银行和企业等经济主体风险承担为中介变量探究货币政策对企业研发创新的潜在影响，无疑有着重要的现实意义。本项目主要研究内容是，在理论层面探索货币政策通过影响银行和企业风险承担行为进而影响企业研发创新的内在机理，在货币政策与企业研发创新之间建立起理论传导机制，进一步在实证层面提供以上传导机制存在性的经验证据，并对这种影响效应的特征和调节因素进行经验分析。研究结果主要有：①货币政策对企业研发创新有显著的影响，总体上，宽松的货币政策有助于推动企业研发创新活动，紧缩性政策则会抑制企业研发创新。②货币政策对企业研发创新的影响效应具有以下特征：第一，相较于国有企业，货币政策对非国有企业研发创新的影响更为显著；第二，货币政策对高新技术企业研发创新的影响要显著高于对非高新技术企业的影响。③不管是银行风险承担还是企业风险承担行为都在货币政策影响企业创新中具有中间传导作用，宽松的货币政策会降低银行对风险估值提高银行和企业的风险承担意愿，进而促进企业进行研发创新。④尽管货币政策对企业固定资产投资和研发创新都有显著的影响，但是对企业研发创新的影响显著大于对固定资产投资的影响，这是因为企业研发创新相比于固定资产投资有更高的风险，而货币政策除了影响银行信贷总量，还影响银行风险评估和风险承担意愿。研究结果的科学意义主要表现在：本项目研究结果表明，货币政策不仅会影响银行风险承担还会影响企业风险承担，而且货币政策会通过影响银行风险承担和企业风险承担行为进而影响了企业研发创新，从而在货币政策和企业研发创新之间建立起联系机制，不仅在横向和纵向两个维度上拓展了货币政策传导机制理论，丰富了企业创新影响因素的理论研究，也为理解货币政策与企业创新之间的关系提供了一个可行框架。