车辆和行人交通的动理学建模、数值模拟及其相关问题的研究

Closely combining with vehicular and pedestrian traffic condition of our country, the macroscopic patterns of traffic congestion and characteristics induced by various different strength and traffic bottleneck,pedestrian channels and so on are observed,measured and analyzed from microscopic view.By using the theory and method of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, the mesoscopic kinetic models which can exactly describe the macroscopic patterns of traffic congestion and characteristics on the typical multilane, traffic bottleneck, pedestrian channel, etc. are derived from microscopic model. By major emphasis on this study of the characteristics of free flow, synchronized flow and wide moving traffic jamming and phase transition between them in mixing traffic, the effects of phase transition, phase separation, hysterisis, clustering and nucleation, etc. are clarified and the relations of nonlinear phenomenon like bifurcation, soliton wave, chaos, etc. with traffic congestion are obtained. The mechanism of the generation, propagation and dissipative processes in the macroscopic traffic model under the action of various different strength and traffic bottlneck,pedestrian channels and so on are studied. For pedestrian flow, the formation of congestions and nonlinear characteristics in various different strength and traffic bottlneck region are explored by path research,information guidance and game between pedestrians. The computer simulation and theoretical analysis are developed by the investigation of numerical parallel algorithm. Based on the traffic flow, nonlinear theory and chaos synchronization control method, the existing nonlinear features such as bifurcation, self-organization, synchronization and chaos, etc. are researched and control methods are proposed in order to suppressed the fluctuations of change in logistics supply chain system and enhance stability of system.

紧密结合我国实际车辆和行人交通状况，通过从微观入手，对形式多样和不同强度的交通瓶颈、行人通道等引起的宏观交通拥堵形态和特性进行观测和分析。运用非平衡统计力学的理论和研究方法，导出能确切描述典型多车道、交通瓶颈、行人通道等宏观交通拥堵形态和特性的介观动理学模型。着重探讨混合交通流自由运动、同步流、宽幅运动阻塞相的特性和相互之间的相变过程，弄清相变、相分离、回滞、集簇等效应。探索交通分叉、交通孤立波、混沌等非线性现象与交通拥堵的关系。研究宏观交通流模型中非线性交通波的产生、传播和消散过程。研究行人通过路径搜索、信息诱导、行人之间的博弈在形式各异和强度不同的交通瓶颈区域形成拥堵的问题以及行人交通中呈现的非线性现象。通过数值并行算法的研制，开展计算机仿真和理论分析。基于交通流模型、非线性混沌控制理论，研究物流供应链系统的建模和呈现的分岔、自组织、同步、混沌等非线性特性以及控制方法，增强系统稳定性。

该项目从微观机理出发考虑驾驶员期望速度随时间的驰豫变化，利用广义Paveri-Fontana等式和Chapman-Enskog方法，导出适应性交通流动理学模型，通过线性稳定性分析及数值模拟验证适应性模型的合理性，可以解释高密度下的时停时走交通现象、交通堵塞的消散过程。在研究交通同步流方面，建立开放边界条件下道路缩减的交通瓶颈流元胞自动机KKW模型，应用重标度分析方法（RS）和去趋势涨落分析（DFA）方法分析交通瓶颈处密度涨落，同时计算道路局域密度、平均速度、流量和交叉关联系数，结合瓶颈处斑图的演化，捕捉、识别交通同步流，结果发现同步流的Hurst指数和DFA指数均大于0.5，交通同步流具有长程关联性，而NaSch模型因其Hurst和DFA指数均小于0.5不能呈现交通同步流。在探讨行人交通动理学行为方面，通过引入合作意愿研究邻居之间相互作用的博弈，对室内行人疏散、拥堵形成问题作了研究，增强合作意愿比考虑博弈策略更能显著地减轻网络交通的堵塞。同时探讨多个出口的室内人群疏散问题。在对交通流能量耗散研究方面，分别从微观和宏观层面对上匝道、局部道路缩减等交通瓶颈处的交通流能量耗散进行了研究，发现上匝道、或局部道路缩减的出流概率对主干道交通流有较大的影响，呈现出一种临界行为。在对车辆尾气排放颗粒物研究方面，通过对香港旺角、上海市典型交叉口车辆排放颗粒物的测量，数据采集和处理，运用多重分形去趋势涨落分析（MF-DFA）方法和去趋势涨落分析（DFA）方法，通过计算车辆尾气排放颗粒物浓度的分形谱和DFA指数谱，首次发现车辆尾气排放颗粒物PM2.5和PM10具有多重分形的特性和其浓度滞留大气呈现的持久性（long-term persistence），颗粒物尺度越小成簇效应越显著，多重分形结构越明显。在交通观测、车流特性分析方面，通过牌照法实测，验证Australian和Canadian延误模型及改进模型。在物流供应链研究方面，考虑供应链多个节点的耦合，提出网络物流供应链的多节点耦合的动力学方程，并进行理论分析与数值模拟。