石羊河流域农户生计风险研究

The livelihood risk for farmers is the core problem in the current process of social construction in rural areas. Based on the psychology to respond livelihood risks maximally and issue with farmers' livelihood security in "three rural" topic , the research about livelihood risks is an objective requirement with own development for farmers. Meanwhile, Shiyang River Basin hosted the largest population density, the highest intensity of economic activity, the most serious area of ecological degradation among four Inland River Basins. The research about livelihood risks is more urgent simultaneously related research lags far behind other inland river basin.By the survey about livelihood status in the Shiyang river basin, the livelihood status quo and livelihood expected are summarized in this study. Based on livelihood capitals and livelihood expected, farmers are divided into different groups for livelihood strategies. By the analysis about livelihoods risk categories, causes, scope and frequency of occurrence and degree of impact, livelihood risks are estimated quantitatively for different groups for livelihood strategies. On this basis, the study analyzes the influence on livelihood capitals in the assault of various risks as well as response with livelihood strategy for farmers by the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. Finally, the study tries to summary strategies library to cope with risks for farmers and proposes reasonable suggestions and opinions in order to reduce livelihood risk and safeguard livelihood security of farmers in rural areas.

农户的生计风险是当今农村社会建设的核心问题。基于农户最大限度地应对生计风险的心理及解决“三农”问题中的农户生计安全问题，开展生计风险研究是农户自身发展的客观要求。石羊河流域是我国四大内陆河流域中，生态系统承载的人口密度最大、生态退化最为触目惊心的区域，开展生计风险研究更为迫切。因此，本项目以石羊河流域为研究区，以可持续生计分析框架为分析工具，通过在研究区开展社会调查，确定农户生计资本现状，并以生计资本和生计预期为基础，划分不同的生计策略组群；辨析不同组群农户所面临的生计风险的类别、产生原因、发生频率及影响范围与程度，并对不同组群农户所面临的生计风险进行定量化测度；在此基础上，分析生计风险对生计资本的影响、评估农户生计策略对生计风险的响应，最终尝试总结农户生计风险的应对策略库，从而为降低农户生计风险，保障农户生计安全提出合理化的建议。

农户的生计风险是当今农村社会建设的核心问题。基于农户最大限度地应对生计风险的心理及解决“三农”问题中的农户生计安全问题，开展生计风险研究是农户自身发展的客观要求。石羊河流域是我国四大内陆河流域中，生态系统承载的人口密度最大、生态退化最为触目惊心的区域，开展生计风险研究更为迫切。因此，本项目通过半结构式农户调查，在分别确定农户生计风险评估体系、生计资本评估体系、典型风险应对策略（资产转为现金、贷款、减少消费、让子女辍学、外出务工、等待政府救济）的基础上，采取主成分分析方法对农户的生计风险（健康风险、环境风险、金融风险、社会风险和信息风险）和生计资本（人力资本、自然资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本）状况进行评估；通过建立相关计量分析模型，量化生计风险对农户生计资本、风险应对策略的影响作用。结果表明：健康风险、环境风险、金融风险、社会风险和信息风险已成为石羊河流域农户所面临的主要生计风险，但不同区域农户面临的生计风险存在差异；不同的生计风险对农户生计资本的影响存在差异，主要表现在：健康风险、环境风险和金融风险对人力资本的影响显著；健康风险和社会风险对自然资本（含物质资本）的影响显著；环境风险和社会风险对金融资本的影响显著；社会风险对社会资本的影响显著；“贷款”、“外出务工”和“减少消费”是石羊河流域农户选择较多且首选的主要风险应对策略；健康风险、环境风险、金融风险、社会风险和信息风险对农户风险应对策略的影响是显著的。主要表现在：健康风险对“让子女辍学”有负向影响，对“外出务工”有正向影响；环境风险对“资产转为现金”、“贷款”、“减少消费”、“让子女辍学”、“外出务工”均有正向影响；金融风险对“减少消费”和“让子女辍学”有负向影响；社会风险对“减少消费”有正向影响；信息风险对“资产转为现金”、“贷款”、“外出务工”有正向影响。