基于数据分析的运气学说基础概念内涵的研究

The theory of Five yun and Six qi is an important part of traditional Chinese medicine. It has original advantages, embodies the theoretical characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine, and plays a certain value in clinical practice..However, there are still many doubts in the theory of Five yun and Six qi, some basic concepts are not clear, the deduction and interpretation of the coincidence of Yun and Qi are not standard, and many judgments are hard to distinguish between true and false, which hinders the exploration of the scientific connotation and the exertion of practical value. Previous studies have failed to solve these problems..This study provides new ideas and methods for solving the above problems, and proposes a new research perspective based on the periodicity idea and the superposition of annual cycle, 60-year cycle and super-60-year cycle. With meteorological data of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi'an and Zhengzhou for 68 consecutive years and infectious disease data for 40 consecutive years as materials, the research scheme conforms to the theoretical characteristics of the theory of Five yun and Six qi is designed. Some scientific hypotheses, such as "meteorological standard of Pingqi year", "law of annual cycle variability", "correlation between periodic variability and epidemic disease occurrence", are put forward, which can be tested by data analysis..This study breaks through the simple linear correlation thinking, and proposes the idea of establishing an infectious disease early warning model with the idea of Yunqi and the independent variables of various cyclical variability factors. It can clarify the connotation of the basic concepts of the theory, and promote the optimization and value of the theory of Yunqi.

运气学说是中医学的重要组成部分，具备中医原创优势和临床实用价值。但运气学说中仍存在较多争议，一些基础概念内涵不清，运气相合的推演和释读缺乏标准，很多论断真伪混杂，阻碍了运气学说的科学内涵挖掘和实践应用。既往的研究未能解决这些问题。本研究采用新的研究思路和方法，提出以周期性思想为统摄，以年周期、60年周期和超60年周期的相互叠加为模型的研究角度，以北京、上海、广州、西安、郑州5个城市连续68年的气象数据和40年的传染病数据为材料，设计了符合运气学说理论特征的研究方法，提出了“平气年的气象标准”“年周期变异性规律”“周期变异性与疫病发生的关联性”等可通过数据分析进行检验的科学假设，突破简单线性相关思路，提出建立以各种周期变异性因素为自变量的logistic回归和判别分析传染病预警模型的研究思路。能厘清运气学说的基础概念内涵，推动运气学说的优化和价值发挥。

项目背景.运气学说是中医学的重要组成部分，具备理论和临床价值。但运气学说中仍存在争议，一些基础概念内涵不清，科学内涵不够充实，运气相合的推演和释读缺乏标准，很多论断真伪混杂，阻碍了运气学说的科学内涵挖掘和实践应用。.主要研究内容.①主气主运的气象实质研究.②运气交司时刻的气象依据.③天符岁会的平气特征研究.④假相当位温与运气的关联性.⑤运气的实时评价研究.⑥超年周期的实证探索.⑦浙江省登革热-气象-运气的关联性.⑧运气学说中的五味制方原则.⑨运气学说中的其他概念研究.重要结果和关键数据.①主气和主运在多种气象因子上有所表现，突破了以单一气象因子代表气或运的研究方法。.②主气和主运的时长、交司时刻的具有可靠的气象依据。.③天符和岁会倾向于属于平气年。.④假相当位温与运气具有一定的关联性。.⑤构建了基于气温、湿度、风速等5个气象因子的运气实时评价的技术方法和展示平台。.⑥冬季干暖和夏季6-7月降雨减少的地域登革热流行的危险性更高，与运气学说的认识具有联系。.⑦运气学说以甘补脾以苦泻脾，《辅行诀》以甘补脾以辛泻脾，这两种说法都具有理论合理性和实践可行性，这两种原则在泻心汤系列方中得到了体现和应用。.⑧“溪谷”是经脉在穴位出发出的通向骨骼的分支，《六元正纪大论》所谓“大寒留于溪谷”指的是寒邪留于骨骼相近的位置，这一理解符合《六元正纪大论》整体的逻辑，具有的临床实用价值。.科学意义.①主气、主运等概念的气象基础得到进一步的充实，运气交司时刻特定的气象现象得到揭示，为年周期的变异性的研究夯实了基础。.②提出天符岁会为平气年的气象依据，为运气相合的推算方法提出了新的实证资料，为“运气相合”推算方法提出了新的参考。.③运气实时评价能够为运气研究和学界提供及时有效的运气与气象的吻合性判断的参考。.④引入“假相当位温”等概念、聚类分析、BEAST突变检验等统计方法为运气学说的实证研究探索了新方法、新思路。.⑤运气七篇的文献价值和理论价值得到挖掘和应用。