基于数据挖掘与运气学说的香港地区气象疫病监测预警系统研究

The theory of five circuits and six qi (i.e.Yunqi) believes that human lives are closely associated with climate changes, which defined as Meteorological-Diseases Related knowledge in Chinese medicine (CM). This doctrine is guided by the overall concept that man and nature correspond and has provided new ideas for research on infectious diseases. For example, this theory systematically discusses the law of climate changes, represented by five circuits and six qi, and the impact of those variations on body physiological changes and the outbreak of diseases, especially in the infectious diseases (i.e. Called Yibing in CM). It is suggest that the prevalence of infectious disease is closely related to cycle rules of weather and Yunqi. Although there were many studies on the relationship between climate change, diseases epidemic and Yunqi, some important issues are not yet clear. For instance, geographical distribution of Yunqi theory researches is not balanced, simple and separated meteorological factors widely used in research of Yunqi and climate, and less prediction models of infectious diseases were established successfully, et al. Consequently, data regarding the incidence of infectious diseases between 1997 and 2016 and the meteorological factors between 1947 and 2016 were collected from Hong Kong area. Some statistical methods (included meteorological comprehensive parameter, wavelet analysis, BP artificial neural network and gray prediction, et al.) were adopted to analyze the data. We aimed to investigate the applicabiliy and practicality of Yunqi theory in Hong Kong, and to establish medical-meteorological forecast models for the research of early warning system based on the association between “Yunqi pattern - Integrated meteorological changes – Diseases epidemic”.

运气学说是研究气象和疾病相关的理论，是中医学的气象疾病学。该理论集中体现了中医学“天人合一”的整体观思想,即人体的生理、病理均会受到外界气候环境的影响。流行性传染病在中医学中被称为“疫病”，运气学说基于“运气一气象一疾病”两两相关的模式，亦认为疫病的流行与五运六气存在密切关联。目前关于气象、传染病与运气的相关性研究虽已不少，但仍存在一些问题，如：对运气理论研究的地域分布不均衡；所对应的气象要素单一且分散，较少反映气象综合变化；传染病预测模型较少建立等。基于此背景，本研究拟利用香港地区1947-2016共70年的气象资料，与香港卫生署、卫生防护中心1997-2016共20年的传染病资料，采用气象综合参数、小波分析、BP神经网络、灰色预测等方法，探讨五运六气在香港地区的具体适用性和实用价值，以及“运气格局-气象综合变化-疫病发生”之间是否存在关联；研究、建立香港地区气象-疫病监测预警模型系统。

研究背景：运气学说是《黄帝内经》天人合一的主要内容，构建了“运气-气候-疾病（尤其是疫病）”相互关联的理论体系。但学界对该理论的科学性认识仍存在不少分歧，尤其是运气模式在不同地域的适用性问题。因此，本研究首次针对香港地区的气象变化、传染病流行和五运六气之间是否存在关联展开系统研究。.研究内容：基于香港60年的气象数据库，探讨气候变化与运气规律的关联性，包括异常天气与异常运气变动；基于香港23年的传染病数据库，探讨传染病流行与运气、气象间的相关性，并建立发病预测模型。.重要结果：1.以立春为起点划分的六气最符合香港实际气候特点，尤其是主气，比24节气和四季更能反映一年中的气象变化态势。2.香港60年实际气候变化与运气规律总体吻合，其中六气的吻合度要高于五运；在不同气象因子的变化趋势中也存在着五运六气的准周期和多周期叠加现象，其中与五运周期的吻合度较高。3.香港60年中有58%的气象变化与运气的刚柔失守有关，而异常天气（如：酷暑、寒冷、雷暴）也会相对较多出现在这些运气异常的年份里。4.香港的传染病流行常见于岁运不及、刚柔失守之年、客气为火之时段、以及小逆、天符等不平和年份；大多数传染病发病还具有六气周期规律。5.香港的传染病高发不仅受当年的气象影响，还与1-3年前运气刚柔失守出现的异常气候有关；基于“三年化疫”理论可成功建立传染病发病的运气-气象预警模型，其中核心的气象因子包括：太阳总辐射、气温、日照、气压、风速和雨量。.科学意义：本研究发现运气规律在香港实际气候变化中的地区适用性，以及“三年化疫”理论在传染病流行预测中的应用价值；这对丰富发展运气学说，提高中医传染病防控工作具有重要启示与意义。