基于数据分析的五省市流行性感冒发病运气学规律研究

The epidemic of infectious diseases is a public health problem which has great harm to human life and health. Influenza is one of the most common infectious diseases. Although vaccines have been widely used in influenza prevention, the incidence of influenza has been on the rise in recent years. Influenza belongs to the category of "Yi Bing" in traditional Chinese medicine. The Yellow Emperor's Internal Classic holds that the five evolutive phases and six climatic factors play an important role in the occurrence of epidemic disease. Therefore, exploring the law of influenza incidence based on the theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors will provide important ideas for its prevention. But at present, there is no systematic and authoritative research on influenza occurrence and epidemic law, the relationship between influenza and five evolutive phases and six climatic factors, and influenza incidence in different regions. Therefore, on the basis of the past 35 years'data of infectious diseases and meteorological data in Beijing, which have proved that some infectious diseases are closely related to the five evolutive phases and six climatic factors, we intend to analyze the influenza incidence and meteorological data of Heilongjiang, Henan, Guangdong, Gansu and Shanghai by using time series analysis, wavelet analysis, and space-time aggregation analysis. The focus of the study is to explore the relationship between influenza incidence and five evolutive phases and six climatic factors in different regions, and the difference of coincidence degree between influenza incidence and theoretical value in different regions. It is of great value to explore the scientificity of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors theory and to prevent and treat influenza from the perspective of traditional Chinese medicine theory.

传染病流行是对人类生命与健康伤害巨大的公共健康问题。流行性感冒（流感）是最常见的传染病之一。虽然疫苗大量应用于流感预防，但是近些年流感发病仍呈现上升趋势。流感属于中医学“疫病”的范畴，《黄帝内经》认为五运六气对疫病的发生具有重要影响，因此，从运气角度探讨流感发病规律将为其预防提供重要思路。但目前，学术界尚缺乏针对流感发生与流行规律、流感与五运六气的关系，以及不同地域流感发病规律对比的系统性研究。因此，本课题组在既往利用北京市35年传染病和气象数据资料，已证实部分传染病发生与干支运气存在密切关联的基础上，拟利用黑龙江、河南、广东、甘肃、上海五省市的流感发病和气象资料，采用时间序列分析、小波分析、时空聚集分析等方法，探索不同地域流感发病规律、与干支运气的关系，对比不同地域间流感发病与干支运气吻合度的差异。这对于全面探索运气理论的科学性，并为从中医药理论角度防治流感发病皆具有重要的意义。

流行性感冒（流感）属于中医学“疫病”的范畴，近些年仍呈现上升趋势。目前，学术界尚缺乏针对流感发生与五运六气的关系，以及不同地域流感发病规律对比的系统性研究。课题利用全国31省市流感发病资料，并重点结合黑龙江、河南、广东、甘肃、上海五省市的流感发病和气象资料，采用时间序列分析、小波分析、时空聚集分析等方法，探索了不同地域流感发病规律及其与干支运气的关系，对比不同地域间流感发病与干支运气吻合度的差异，完成了各项既定任务。研究发现在不同年份、主气时段，我国流感发病率时空聚集特征具有显著差异，如三之气时段，湖南、江西、福建、广东、广西省呈现高-高聚集，黑龙江、吉林省呈现低-低聚集特征；而终之气时段，北京、天津市呈现高-高聚集，云南、吉林省呈现低-低聚集特征；五省市流感发病率周期性变化存在相似特征，如五省市六气时段流感发病率均具有9气位的主周期；最低温度、风速是影响流感流行的重要因素；建立了五省市流感气象预测模型，其中甘肃省、黑龙江省的最佳模型均纳入了气象要素，具有较好的预测精度；证实了流感发病与五运六气密切相关，特别是六气主气、客气司天和在泉；五省市流感发病的运气学特征呈现出一定的差异，说明地域是影响流感发病的重要因素之一；流感实际发病情况与运气理论推演具有一定的吻合度。本研究对于从中医药理论角度防治流感发病具有重要的指导意义。