基于数据分析的干支运气与人体质及疾病罹患关系研究

The theory of five circuits and six qi is an important part of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), its scientific and objectivity have great importance of guiding TCM theory and clinical. We have conducted a systematic analysis and argumentation in previous work of relationship between the Yunqi theory of heavenly stems and earthly branches and actual climate changes as well as diseases in Beijing area. We found that the climatic cycle deduced by Yunqi were quite consistent with actual climate changes and associated with the outbreak of diseases. However, the Yunqi theory of heavenly stems and earthly branches also affect human constitution and the tendency of suffering from diseases because its impact on fetal pregnancy, which was defined according to the theory of Huangdi′s Canon of Medicine. Although this cognition is extremely important, there is still a lack of sufficient researches. Therefore, three databases were established: Data regarding the physique investigation of 2,000 students were from Beijing University of TCM, data regarding the 20,000 medical records information for 12 years were collected from Beijing Dongzhimen Hospital, and the data regarding 10,000 death cases for 18 years were selected from Shandong Yuhuangding Hospital. Logistic regression, structural equation modeling, and BP artificial neural network were adopted to analyze the association between the five circuits and six qi in date of birth and physical type, longevity, and the incidence of internal organs diseases, in order to provide a scientific basis for the theory and application of Yunqi.

五运六气学说是中医学理论的重要内容，其理论的科学性对中医理论及临床均具有重要意义。干支运气与实际气象变化及疾病发生之间关联性的内容我们已在前期工作中进行了系统的分析与论证，得出结论：干支运气描述的气象周期与实际气候存在吻合性，并与疾病发生密切关联。但据《内经》，干支运气与生命活动的关系亦包括运气通过影响胎孕而影响子代的体质及疾病罹患倾向，但这方面的内容目前尚缺乏充分的挖掘与研究。基于此背景，本研究拟利用三个数据库，即北京中医药大学2千名大学生体质分类数据库、东直门医院12年2万余个病案资料数据库、烟台毓璜顶医院18年的1万余个死亡病案数据库，采用Logistic回归分析法、结构方程模型（SEM）、BP神经网络等数据分析法，探讨人出生时的干支运气与后天的体质类型、疾病罹患系统倾向以及寿命期限之间的关联性，以期全面解析运气理论、为临床疾病的预防与治疗提供科学依据。

研究背景：运气学说是《黄帝内经》天人合一的主要内容，阐明的是自然周期性规律对生命现象的影响。但目前中医界对五运六气周期的科学性认识存在较大分歧，为验证、揭示运气理论的科学性，我们建立了诸多资料数据库，以期基于科学性较强的数据统计方法，对古老而重要的运气理论的客观性进行探讨。.研究内容：一是基于3000名大学生的体质调查问卷，对其出生、及推演出的受孕时间运气特征与体质的关系进行了研究；二是基于北京肿瘤登记中心10年的肿瘤资料，对常见恶性肿瘤，如肺癌、肝癌、淋巴癌、白血病患者的出生及受孕干支运气进行了分析；三是基于烟台毓璜顶医院30年的死亡资料，分析了的出生、受孕时段干支运气特征与运气同化异化对人体寿命的影响；并分析了心肌梗死和脑血管疾病发病死亡的干支运气规律。.重要结果：一、不同体质的形成与出生时期的天干、岁运、主气、客气均有关联性，其中，以天干的影响作用最为显著，尤其是癸年，即火运不及之年出生者，容易形成偏颇体质。特别是六气主气影响最大，受孕初期的主气是太阳寒水，容易形成阳虚质；受孕初期的主气是少阴君火，容易形成阴虚质；出受孕初期的主气是太阴湿土，容易形成痰湿质；受孕初期主气是厥阴风木，容易形成气郁质。二、肺癌、淋巴瘤、白血病、肝癌的罹患规律，受孕初期运气禀赋为火、木气偏盛的运气时段，后天罹患肿瘤风险降低；为金、水的运气时段，后天罹患肿瘤风险增加，即人体先天阳气禀赋充足，则后天罹患肿瘤的风险降低。三、人的寿命与受孕之时的运气有密切关系。①受孕于少阴君火司天、阳明燥金在泉寿命较长，受孕于太阴湿土司天、太阳寒水在泉寿命较短。②岁运同化之岁会年出生或受孕寿命最长；在不和年份和天符年份出生或受孕寿命较短，其中天符年份最短。.科学意义：运气周期对人体之体质、寿命、疾病罹患具有全面的影响，这一影响对从生命形成角度揭示生命本质、预防某些遗传学、严重性疾病的罹患，具有重要启示与意义。