基于不同偏好类型下图模型的水资源冲突研究

With population growth and economic development, water resources shortage and water resources pollution have become a serious phenomenon in China, which have subsequently caused the increase of water resources conflicts. Water resources conflicts involve a variety of complex conflicts of interests and social contradiction, and have become an important factor that restricts the development of the regional economy and the sustainable utilization of water resources in China. In-depth study of water resources conflict resolution theories and methods is helpful for guiding the practice of water resources conflict management and effectively preventing and solving the real-world water resources conflicts. Therefore, this project is a very valuable research topic. Since decision makers’ (DMs’) behavior characteristics and preference information have significant influence on the development and the final resolution of a conflict, analyzing DMs – the most active factor of a conflict – is very important. In the research, through setting DMs’ different types of preferences, DMs’ both rational consciousness and subjective perception are reflected and described, and thus DMs’ features are more consistent with reality. Specifically, in the research, some typical water resources conflicts are modeled and analyzed using different kinds of preference frameworks of Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) to simulate and forecast the development process and the possible equilibriums of the conflicts, and to provide strategic insights of the decision making process for DMs. Through the analysis, DMs in the conflict and other conflict analyzers can clearly understand how the conflict situation changes caused by a DM’s decision under different conditions, and finally, solutions of water resources conflicts and sharing mechanism of water resources can be found.

随着人口的增加和经济的发展，我国水量短缺与水质恶化形势日益加剧，由此而引发的水资源冲突日益激化。水资源冲突往往涉及种种复杂的利益矛盾和社会矛盾，已严重制约着我国水资源的可持续开发与利用。深入研究水资源冲突分析的理论与方法，对我国水资源冲突管理实践进行指导，对水资源冲突进行及时有效地防范和解决，是一项非常有价值的课题。由于冲突事件的发展往往受到冲突中决策者的行为特征和偏好信息的支配，本研究拟在冲突分析图模型框架下，通过设定不同类型的偏好，对决策者既具有理性意识又带有主观知觉的决策过程进行模拟，从而准确地分析决策者这一最活跃因素对冲突事件发展的影响。具体的，本研究拟利用不同偏好类型下的图模型对我国典型水资源冲突进行建模与分析，模拟和预测冲突事态的发展过程及结果，为冲突中的决策者、仲裁者及政策制定者提供详尽的决策依据和战略指导，并最终挖掘出我国水资源冲突的解决途径，构建水资源共享的保障机制。

随着人口的增加和经济的快速发展，我国水量短缺与水质恶化形势日益加剧，由此而引发的水资源冲突日益激化，水资源冲突往往涉及种种复杂的利益矛盾和社会矛盾，已严重制约了我国水资源的可持续开发和利用。深入研究水资源冲突分析和管理的理论与方法，对我国水资源冲突管理的实践进行指导，对水资源冲突进行及时有效地防范和解决，是一项非常有价值的课题，也是我国维护社会稳定、建设和谐社会的重要内容。. 鉴于水资源冲突往往通过协商解决，同时冲突分析的图模型法具有协商水资源冲突问题、协调各方利益的决策功能，本课题对图模型法进行扩展、改进与完善，并运用完善后的方法对我国现实中典型的水资源共享冲突案例进行建模和分析。由于冲突事件的进展往往受到冲突中决策者的行为特征和偏好信息的支配，因此，本课题通过设定不同类别的偏好和态度等因素，对冲突决策者既具有理性意识又带有主观知觉的决策理念和决策过程进行模拟，尽量刻画与现实世界相符的决策者，从而准确地分析冲突决策者这一最活跃因素对冲突事件发展的影响。. 本课题在深入研究水资源冲突的内涵、种类以及动因的基础上，利用不同偏好类型下的冲突分析图模型法对我国典型的水量冲突、水质冲突、水量和水质并存冲突、水利工程及其附属冲突案例进行建模和求解，以模拟和预测冲突事态的发展过程及结果，使冲突中的决策者及其他冲突分析者了解不同情况下各项决策可能引起的局势变化，从而为冲突方及协调方提供更详细的决策指导，并最终挖掘出我国水资源冲突的解决途径和共享机制。本研究对我国现有的与水资源冲突解决相关的理论研究及实践应用起到一定的完善和推动作用。