基于CDM下的陕北退耕区域农业产业-资源系统耦合机制研究

The research is mainly focused on the question that the agricultural resources cannot transform into productivity efficiently while it has potential storage after the implementation of Grain for Green Project. We measured the carbon sink of typical watershed in the returning farmland area, and analyzed the correlation between the agricultural industry and resources in typical county, they were very important for researching the ecological economics basis of agricultural land’s carbon sink industry characteristics and the new economic growth point of the returning farmland. Carbon sink industry had been integrated into the process of system cycle besed on CDM, the study established agricultural industry-resources conceptual model, selected variable or parameter which can characterize the agricultural industry-resources coupling mechanism to make its concept into mathematical model, and then formed the agricultural industry-resources coupling process model. On that basis, there was more to determine the thresholds of agricultural resources utilization and some possible future development paths of the agricultural industry-resources system, research and develop the operational mode of agricultural industry-resources coupled system to be suitable for the demans of the CDM in the returning farmland area of northern shaanxi, and built system coupling mechanism block diagram to propose the path, safeguard measures and corresponding policies which can be implemented. We do this to promote the effective use of agricultural resources, realize the consistence of industry-resources under CDM regulations, accelerate industrial upgrading and structural adjustment in rural areas, provide the scientific basis for stabilizing the grain for green project results, and serve the development of the ecological economics and the agricultural science.

针对退耕还林工程实施后农业资源存量较大及其未能有效地转化为生产力的现实，通过对陕北退耕区域典型流域碳汇量的测算、典型县域农业产业-资源系统互动关系的分析，探讨农用地碳汇产业特征及其作为退耕区域新的经济增长点的生态经济学基础；依据CDM之规定，将碳汇产业融入系统循环过程中，建立农业产业-资源系统的概念模型，选取可表征农业产业-资源耦合系统的变量或参数，使其概念模型数学化，形成农业产业-资源耦合过程模型。在此基础上，确定农业资源可开发利用的阈值及农业产业-资源系统可能发展的路径，研发适合于CDM需求的陕北退耕区域农业产业与农业资源系统耦合的可操作模式，构建系统耦合机制框图，提出耦合机制框图可实施的路径、保障措施及相应政策。为促进农业资源有效利用，实现CDM规制下的农业产业与农业资源相一致，加速农村产业升级和结构调整，稳固退耕还林工程成果方案的制定提供科学依据，为生态经济学和农业科学发展服务。

针对退耕区域农业资源存量较大及其未能有效地转化为生产力的现实，依据CDM之规定，在对县南沟流域6个时点刺槐生物量测定、典型流域和县域农业产业-资源相关表征指标数据及1600户农户数据采集与分析的基础上，获得以下主要研究结论：. 1）明确了农用地碳汇产业的特征，确定了碳汇产业的显化模式，论证了碳汇产业作为退耕区域新的经济增长点的生态经济学基础。. 2）构建了禁伐政策下退耕林地补偿标准的动态模型，确定了退耕的一个补偿周期为35a，其补偿标准：退耕1～13a为1909.17元/(hm2•a)、退耕14～35a为3650.65元/(hm2•a)。. 3）构建了农业产业-资源系统耦合过程模型，明确了参数k1、k2、k3、k4变化的16种情景及其所代表的生态经济意义；预测了县南沟流域不同情境下农业产业-资源系统耦合关系。. 4）明确了农业产业-资源耦合系统演替的可能路径：现状发展模式的现状发展情景；碳汇产业发展模式下的含经济品碳汇情景和不含经济品碳汇情景；碳汇产业+农林特产模式下的“‘碳汇产业+农林特产’+农户”经营情景和“‘碳汇产业+农林特产’+家庭农场”经营情景。在农用地利用“阈值”下，确定了“‘碳汇产业+农林特产’+家庭农场”是该流域发展的最佳方案。. 5）将农业产业-资源系统耦合机制分为单一线型耦合机制、多维链型耦合机制、网型耦合机制；通过对吴起县497户农户数据的分析，验证了政策、信息、农业资源、农业产业是组成系统耦合机制的重要驱动要素；吴起县在多维链型耦合机制调控下，各产业链仅停留在对资源的显性利用上，减弱了对林草资源的利用强度，林草生态系统仅发挥了生态功能；需要通过建立林草—碳汇产业，强化林草—畜牧业产业链，促进农业技术的创新与推广，实现农业产业-资源系统的优化耦合。. 围绕本项目，发表论文16篇，其中第一标注10篇；培养博士研究生1名、硕士研究生5名，已全部毕业；参加国内、国际学术会议4次。. 研究结论丰富了流域生态经济管理理论，可为退耕区域及相关脆弱区生态恢复与经济发展实践方案的制定提供科学依据。