海岛生态环境脆弱性演变的遥感监测及评价-以舟山群岛为例

Recent method of island vulnerability assessment has two major difficulties: 1) vulnerability indicators retrieved from satellite data for charactering human development activities were limited; 2）there are few researches on time series island vulnerability analysis. In this study, we will extract key factors indicating human intervention on island vulnerability by long-term remotely sensed images, and then conduct vulnerability assessment since 1970 in the Zhoushan Islands. Impervious surfaces for the island scale were estimated and the relationship with impervious surface changes and surface water pollution was investigated. Coastline dynamics during the past 4 decades were evaluated and the influence of coastline changes on coastal environment was analyzed. And multi-temporal water quality parameters were reconstructed to discuss the way and the role of these factors in the deterioration of water quality. Finally, the island vulnerability assessment system and quantitative model were created based on the multi-source data analysis above during the past 40 years. We expect that the further application of remote sensing technologies in island vulnerability, and the knowledge of the changes in the ecological environment and the sustainable development under continuous human development in the Zhoushan Islands as well as the support of data and decision-making in the future.

针对海岛生态环境脆弱性在人类活动影响的遥感脆弱性评价指标涉及较少和长时期脆弱性演变趋势研究缺乏两个主要问题，本项目以长时期遥感数据作为主要数据来源，获取表征人类开发活动影响海岛生态环境脆弱性变化的关键指示因素，对我国舟山群岛在过去四十年的生态环境脆弱性演变趋势进行研究。研究海岛不透水面信息提取和不透水面变化对岛陆地表水质污染的指示作用；分析海岛岸线变化及其对潮间带海岸环境的影响，以及舟山海域水质参数变化及其对近岸水体健康的影响；研究建立综合岛陆、潮间带及近岸海域的空间化海岛生态环境脆弱性评价指标体系与量化模型。本研究可望深化基于遥感的海岛脆弱性评价方法，使我们进一步了解舟山群岛的生态环境变化及其可持续发展状态，而且为未来合理开发无居民海岛提供数据、决策支持。

针对遥感可获取的海岛生态环境弱性评价指标涉及较少和长时期舟山群岛生态脆弱性演变趋势研究缺乏两个主要问题，本项目以长时期遥感数据作为主要数据来源，结合实测及统计公报数据，首先获取可表征近岸开发活动影响海岛生态环境脆弱性变化的重要指示因素，在此基础上，对我国舟山群岛在过去四十年的生态环境脆弱性演变趋势进行研究。研究海岛不透水面信息提取和不透水面变化对岛陆生态环境脆弱性的指示作用；分析海岛岸线变化及其对潮间带海岸环境的影响，以及舟山海域水质参数变化及其对近岸水质状况的影响；建立综合岛陆、潮间带及近岸海域的空间化海岛生态环境脆弱性评价方法。研究结果发现：遥感海岛不透水面变化信息是表征海岛生态环境脆弱性演变的重要指示因子；1980-2011年，研究区自然环境脆弱性分值略有升高，而社会环境脆弱性分值则明显提高；2000-2011年，研究区社会环境环境脆弱性分值的提高幅度则小于1990-2000年。该结果表明：在过去四十年，舟山群岛生态环境脆弱性总体呈上升趋势；但是近十年随着海岛淡水资源、交通、防灾设施应对等方面的社会响应能力加强，在一定程度上有降低海岛生态环境脆弱性不断增强的趋势。本研究可望深化基于遥感及地理信息技术的的海岛生态环境脆弱性评价方法，可使我们进一步了解舟山群岛的生态环境变化及其可持续发展状态，并且为未来合理开发无居民海岛提供数据、决策支持。