煤层气项目全生命周期风险动态演变机理及控制方法研究

Coalbed methane (CBM) regarded as a clean and efficient unconventional natural gas with the advantage of its resources, will usher in the golden period of development, in the context of the great importance attached to environmental issues by Chinese government and the increasing global demand for energy. . In this study, an advanced comprehensive integration approach based on system analysis, combining qualitative and quantitative methods was proposed and first used to investigate the risk factors and their relationships among different development periods during the full life cycle for CBM project and develop a risk assessment indicator system for different development periods of CBM. In addition, with the aim to reveal the mechanisms of the dynamic evolution on CBM, a model with multi-period risk dynamic assessment was established by using mathematical statistics methods and structural equation models. Besides, multi-source information fusion techniques were introduced to construct the risk evolution theory and decision methods for CBM development, and artificial intelligence and modern computer technique were also integrated into decision support system for risk assessment. . As a consequence, our obtained results, mainly including the identification, evaluation and control of the risks during full life cycle, can provide the basis for decision-making and are of great significance both theoretically and practically for CBM development.

随着国家对环境问题的高度重视以及能源需求的不断增长，煤层气作为一种清洁、高效的非常规天然气凭着其资源优势将迎来黄金发展时期。. 基于系统分析、定性与定量相结合的综合集成方法，研究煤层气开发全生命周期内煤层气项目不同阶段风险因素和相互关系，建立分阶段煤层气风险评价指标体系；综合运用数理统计方法、结构方程模型等构建分阶段风险动态评价模型，研究揭示煤层气项目风险的动态演变机理；利用多源信息融合技术研究煤层气开发风险演变理论和控制决策方法；运用人工智能和现代计算机技术研制煤层气开发风险评价决策支持系统。. 通过本项目研究，实现煤层气开发全生命周期内风险的识别、评价和控制，从而为煤层气开发提供科学决策依据。因此，本研究具有重要的理论和实际意义。

基于煤层气项目全生命周期理论，运用煤层气地质学、煤层气开发技术、现代数学方法和风险评价控制理论等，研究建立了煤层气项目全生命周期下分阶段风险评价指标体系。运用系统分析、定性与定量相结合的综合集成方法，实现了煤层气开发过程中不同阶段风险度量，利用结构方程模型分析煤层气开发风险传导路径，揭示煤层气开发风险形成变化机制。综合运用Bayes网络方法、D-S证据理论和不确定型层次分析法等方法建立了煤层气项目风险评价模型，结合多源信息融合技术对煤层气项目风险评价模型进行综合评价和优化，研究了煤层气项目风险控制的关键因素和方法。从系统论角度研究建立了煤层气开发项目不同战略层次的三维系统结构，基于过程维、资源维和战略维的角度，深入分析了煤层气项目风险系统的控制过程和控制机制。利用软件工程思想，研发了煤层气开发风险评价决策支持系统，可为煤层气项目风险评价和风险防控提供定量依据。