煤层气开发风险动态变化规律及控制方法研究

Thanks to the concerns of Chinese government, coalbed methane (CBM) development has achieved a historic breakthrough based on researches for more than 20 years. Up to the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, CBM exploitation and utilization had realized commercialization and a large-scale production in China. By using system analysis, CBM geology and development technology, modern mathematical methods and risk control theory, and the combination of qualitative and quantitative approach, this project will focus on the dynamic variation rule and control methods of the CBM development risk. An indicator system of the risk assessment for CBM development in China will be established on the basis of extraction, quantification, and optimalizaion of the risk factors; Some structural equation models for different stages of risk measurement will be constructed to reveal the rule and dynamic variations of risks during the CBM development; Approaches used for risk prediction, control and decision-making will also be studied using the risk control theory; And a risk calculation, control and decision supporting system will be coded by means of the artificial intelligence and modern computer technology. Some innovative results will be achieved through the research of this project, including the risk factors analysis, structural equation modeling, dynamic variation and rules, which could be used to control the risk in the whole process of CBM development and provide some scientific basis for decision-making. Therefore, the project has an important significance, not only theoretically, but also practically.

国家高度重视煤层气开发利用，经过20余年的攻关，至"十一五"末，我国煤层气开发实现历史性突破，初步实现商业化、规模化。 基于系统分析、定性与定量相结合的方法，运用煤层气地质学、煤层气开发技术、现代数学方法和风险控制理论，研究煤层气开发过程中的风险因素，建立适合我国煤层气开发特点的风险评价指标体系，并对指标进行优选、量化；利用现代数学方法建立煤层气开发过程中不同阶段风险度量的结构方程模型,结合模型揭示煤层气开发过程风险动态变化关系和规律；利用风险控制理论研究煤层气开发风险预测、控制和决策的方法；运用人工智能和现代计算机技术研制煤层气开发风险计算、控制的决策支持系统。 通过本项目研究，期望对煤层气开发过程中的风险因素、结构方程模型建立、风险的动态变化关系和规律方面取得创新性成果,实现对煤层气开发风险的全过程控制，从而为煤层气开发提供科学决策依据。因此，本项目的研究具有重要的理论和实际意义。

综合国内外煤层气开发风险评价的研究成果，吸收石油、天然气开发风险评价的理论和方法，考虑煤层气自身的特点，研究影响煤层气开发风险的各种因素。通过研究分析发现，煤层气开发风险评价最基本的因素应该包括：地质因素、经济因素、环境因素、管理运营因素和工艺技术因素等。在问卷调查、专家访谈的基础上，结合煤层气开发项目的特点，运用统计分析、因子分析和多元回归分析方法，识别出影响煤层气开发的关键风险因素集，建立了煤层气开发风险评价体系并对指标进行了优化筛选。根据煤层气开发特点，建立煤层气开发风险路径关系模型，提出研究路径关系的假设，进而运用结构方程建模方法，验证风险因素之间的关系路径假设，识别出影响煤层气开发风险的关键路径。通过分析路径效用得出关键风险因素影响程度，构建了煤层气开发风险评价模型。基于煤层气项目经济评价决策系统，利用软件工程思想，初步设计、开发了煤层气项目综合评价及风险分析系统。