煤系“三气”共采经济性组合优化模型及决策支持系统研究

The three gases in coal measures, including coalbed methane, shale gas and tight sandstone gas, are considered as a promising type of unconventional natural gas resource. Their exploration, exploitation and research have attracted much attention in recent years. Taking the coal measure strata as a whole, the comprehensive exploration and exploitation of the three gases can not only reduce the corresponding cost, but also increase the total reserves of unconventional natural gas resource and the amount of available resources in technical exploitation. In addition, the operating efficiency of gas wells and profit of a single well can be effiectively improved. .Based on the theory of multi-source information fusion and the study of economic exploitation of three gases in coal measures, this project in conjunction with the characteristics of three gas commingling will investigate the economic commingling of three gases with different combinatons. This project will also establish a quantitive model of key factors of three gas commingling in coal measures through examining the relevant factors. Furthermore, taking the economic commingling of three gases in coal measures as the general objective, this project will offer a combinatorial optimization decision model for economy commingling of three gases under multiple targets and complicated condition, and develop a decision support system of economic evaluation of commingling in coal measures by using modern computer technology. This decision support system can eventually provide helpful decision support for economic evaluation and investment risk forecasting of three gas commingling in coal measures. .Given the aforementioned innovations, it is expected to made some important contributions to three gas commingling in terms of economic assessment approach and decision support theory. These contributions can provide useful insights into the industrialization of three gas commingling with respect to its theory and method. Consequently, the present study does assume substantial theoretical and practical significance.

把煤系地层视作一个整体，综合勘探开发煤层气、页岩气、致密砂岩气不仅可以减少勘探开发成本，增大非常规天然气总储量和技术可采资源量，还可以提高气井使用效率和单井利润。.基于多源信息融合理论，在分析研究煤层气、页岩气和致密砂岩气开采经济性的基础上，根据煤系“三气”共采的特点，研究三气不同组合形式共采的经济性。通过研究探求煤系“三气”共采的相关要素，建立煤系“三气”共采关键影响因素的数量化模型。以煤系“三气”共采经济性为总目标，研究建立多目标、复杂条件下，煤系“三气”共采经济性组合优化决策模型，运用现代计算机技术实现煤系“三气”共采经济性评价的决策支持系统，从而为煤系“三气”合层共采和项目投资提供决策支持。.通过本项目的研究，期望在煤系“三气”共采经济性评价理论方法和决策支持等方面有所突破，为未来煤系“三气”共采的产业化作好理论和方法的准备。具有重要的理论和实际意义。

基于多源信息融合理论与技术，综合运用非常规天然气地质学、现代数学方法和经济评价理论，研究建立了煤系“三气”共采经济性评价指标体系，并计算了评价指标体系权重。通过多层次模糊综合评判模型与GIS栅格叠加方法相结合，实现了煤系“三气”共采平面有利区块的划分和评价。建立了基于多源信息融合技术的煤系“三气”共采产能预测模型，研究结果表明建立的模型有效且预测效果好。基于DEA的多目标规划理论，对研究区多个研究对象的不同项目方案进行了对比研究，筛选出了项目实施方案。运用现代计算机技术，构建了煤系“三气”共采经济性组合优化模型及决策支持系统，为煤系“三气”共采经济性评价和投资风险性分析预测提供了决策支持。