基础设施项目风险的动态管理方法：考虑利益相关者风险态度及风险相互影响

It is generally acknowledged that development of infrastructure projects would require huge amounts of investments, involve numerous project stakeholders, take a long period of construction duration, as well as apply various complicated technologies, which leads to the higher complexity of risk management compared with that in the generally perceived construction projects. It is thus critical to effectively manage the risks involved in the life-cycle of infrastructure projects. It is determined by existing literature that project stakeholders' risk attitudes can affect the overall effectiveness of risk management of infrastructure projects largely, but the previous studies fail to investigate the risk attitudes systematically. Further, although risks are dynamics and they are interacted during the life-cycle of infrastructure projects, previous studies tend to identify and examine the risks from the independent and static perspectives, which to a large extent limits the reasonability and applicability of the research findings. This research aims to address the above research gaps through presenting an approach for managing risks of infrastructure projects from a dynamic point of view. Specifically, the project stakeholders' risk attitudes are thoroughly examined when identifying and allocating risks. A Risk Management Ability Assessment Model (RMAAM) is developed by focusing on project stakeholders' risk attitudes and their capacity of handling the risks. Meanwhile, system dynamics based models for risk assessment and response are developed to analyze the dynamic interactions of risks and its impact on the overall effectiveness of risk management in infrastructure projects. The models developed are tested, validated and simulated by adopting the Shenzhen Subway project. It is anticipated that the research would not only enrich the body of knowledge of project risk management but also the overall effectiveness of risk management in the life-cycle of infrastructure projects.

基础设施项目由于投资巨大、利益相关者多、建设周期长及技术复杂等原因，所面临的风险管理问题也较一般建设项目更为复杂。已有研究显示，主要利益相关者的风险态度对基础设施项目风险管理有较大影响，但目前对这种影响仍缺乏系统和深入的研究，同时，前人学者往往以静态的视角对风险进行孤立探讨，忽视了风险的相互作用关系及其在项目实施过程中不断变化的特点，这在相当程度上限制了理论成果的合理性与适用性。本课题拟提出一种基础设施建设项目风险的动态管理方法，具体地，在风险识别和分担时充分考虑利益相关者风险态度，并基于利益相关者风险态度和其风险应对能力建立风险管理能力评估模型，同时，在风险评估与应对时借助系统动力学方法构建相应的仿真模型，利用深圳地铁项目开展实证研究，对风险相互影响的作用机理进行深入分析。研究成果不仅能充实现有项目风险管理理论，也能有效地提升基础设施项目生命周期各阶段风险管理的成效。

基础设施项目投资巨大、利益相关者多、建设周期长及技术复杂，相较于一般项目会受到更为复杂的风险影响，这极大地削减了项目的经济效益与社会价值。在国家经济建设迅速发展的今天，有效应对基础设施项目风险变得越来越迫切。.本项目首先基于心理学理论，在全面总结风险态度、风险感知以及风险容忍度研究的基础上，系统梳理了风险态度、风险感知以及风险容忍度的影响因素，借助结构方程模型的研究方法建立了安全风险态度、安全风险感知以及安全风险容忍度的形成机制模型。研究发现，安全文化对安全风险态度和安全风险容忍度具有显著影响，与此同时，风险容忍度又对风险感知具有明显作用；然后，在风险评估与应对时借助系统动力学方法和社会网络方法构建相应的仿真模型，并对模型的信度和效度进行检验。最后，利用大型基础设施项目开展实证研究，对风险相互影响的作用机理进行深入分析。结果表明，风险因素间存在动态相互作用，综合风险对项目目标的影响明显大于单一风险的简单累加，因此风险因素之间的相互作用在评估风险影响中至关重要。.在理论层面，本项目揭示了风险态度、风险感知以及风险容忍度的形成机理，为研究风险管理中的人为因素提供了理论基础。与此同时，项目系统梳理了风险之间的相互作用机理，为后续的风险分析建立了理论框架。在实践层面，本项目识别了风险态度、风险感知以及风险容忍度的关键影响因素与影响路径，建立了定量化研究方法来探讨风险的相互影响机理，进一步揭示了项目管理实践中存在的风险相互影响的内在规律，极大提高了理论成果的应用价值。以本基金项目为依托，在国内外期刊和国际会议上发表多篇SCI/SSCI和EI论文，学术专著即将由建筑工业出版社出版，另有三篇论文在评审和修改中。