基于社区利益相关者博弈的灾害风险适应性评估研究

China's disaster prevention and mitigation management has been initially formed the response system of executive-led and territorial jurisdiction, while disaster prevention and mitigation of community level is relatively weak. In recent years, China's theoretical research on disaster system has been made great progress, and its research in the field of disaster risk is already comparable with the international academic research. Especially, Chinese research about integrated disaster and risk prevention has attracted increasing attention, however, its adaptive evaluation research based on risk classification is not such sufficient. Stakeholders' coordination and cooperation mechanisms are weak, meanwhile, its research of integrated disaster and risk management of community level is scanty. This paper intend to start with the adaptive classification of disaster risk, then assess the adaptability of disaster risk, and focus on stakeholders' cooperation of community level. In order to build a integrated management model of natural disaster in community level, and set about researching with adaptive stimulate measure to promote lasting cooperation of community stakeholders, consequently make some suggestion for China's community disaster prevention and mitigation. We intend to based on some typical cases, to guide with multidisciplinary theory, to utilize methods such as experimental economics, game theory, computer simulation, to discuss two key issues between adaptive disaster model based on changes of society and economy and game equilibrium of disaster prevention and mitigation based on stakeholders, in order to contribute to the theoretical research of disaster risk.

中国防灾减灾管理已初步形成"行政主导、属地管辖"的应对体系，但因体制和认识原因，社区层级的防灾减灾相对薄弱。中国灾害系统理论研究已与国际学术领域比肩并进，尤其是巨灾风险救助模式引起了国际社会的关注，但对于风险应对措施的适应性评价研究不够，相关利益方协调合作机制研究不足，尤其是社区层面综合灾害风险治理研究空白。我们拟从灾害风险应对的适应性入手，对灾害风险应对的适应性进行评估，重点就社区层面决定风险应对适应性的灾害利益相关者博弈合作问题进行研究，以期构建一个社区应对自然灾害相关利益方激励相容的综合治理模式，为我国社区防灾减灾提出对策建议。我们拟采用以典型案例研究为基础，以多学科交叉理论为指导，综合运用实验经济学、博弈论、计算机仿真模拟等方法，对社区利益相关者的利益结构与博弈关系进行分析，对灾害强度、频度、经济结构等影响风险应对适应性的关键因素进行阐释，以便对灾害风险的适应性理论研究和社区综合减灾防灾实践有所助益。

本项目研究目的是以社区为对象探讨利益相关者应对灾害所采取措施及其适应性评估。研究重点是就社区层面灾害利益相关者的博弈合作问题进行研究，以期构建一个社区应对自然灾害相关利益方激励相容的综合治理模式，为我国社区防灾减灾提出对策建议。主要包括2个层面的内容：一是探究基于社区利益相关者之间博弈的灾害应对措施；二是通过构建一个社区灾害治理模式来揭示对策措施是否适应灾害治理。主要的方法包括博弈论方法和案例方法。.通过研究我们得出如下几点结论性认识：一是社区治理是创新社会管理的当然内容和重要基础。二是从实践出发概括总结中国社区灾害风险综合治理模式。三是要从适应性角度评价社区灾害风险综合治理的功效。四是要通过利益相关者的博弈分析刻画社区利益主体的行为方式。进一步总结我国村镇基层社区灾害风险治理一般模式，并提出加强我国城镇化进程中社区灾害风险治理对策建议。.本项目研究的科学意义在于2点：一是方法论上引入了博弈分析方法；二是理论上提出了社区应对自然灾害风险的综合治理模式，其应用前景也有2个层面：对社区层面防灾减灾综合治理的实践方式具有一定的参考借鉴作用；对国家宏观上制定社区风险灾害治理政策有一定的指导价值。