公共建筑实际能耗与预期目标差异的形成机理与改进策略研究：考虑能耗信息的完整性及能耗相关者的相互影响

In the context of the nationwide implementations of energy control, the gap between actual and expected building energy consumption has become a striking problem to tackle. Previous studies have shown that the formation of the energy gap involves a multitude of factors and the underlying relationships can be of great complexity. The integrity of building energy information and interactions among stakeholders play the most essential role in the formation of the energy gap. Currently, there is a lack of research investigating the influence of stakeholders and energy information integrity on building energy performance. This research project, therefore, aims to investigate the formation mechanism and improvement strategy of the building energy gap from two perspectives: energy information integrity and stakeholders. Through data-driven techniques, reverse analysis will be conducted to explore the stakeholders’ attributes, behaviors and decisions, and the energy consumption information transmission, communication and understanding that influence building energy performance. Building energy system model and benign evolution mechanism of the system will be developed and analyzed. Finally, a strategy framework will be developed and validated for promoting building energy saving practices, by adjusting the internal structure and external environment of the building energy system model. The research outcomes will not only contribute to the current theories and knowledge on building energy saving, but also enhance the overall effectiveness of implementing building energy saving strategies.

在国家对建筑能耗实施目标管控的背景下，建筑实际能耗无法达到预期目标（能耗差异）是当前建筑节能急需解决的突出问题。已有研究表明，能耗差异的形成涉及众多要素，且要素之间相互影响关系复杂，其中能耗信息完整性及能耗相关者相互影响又是造成能耗差异的重要原因。然而前人学者对上述问题仍缺乏系统深入的研究，在一定程度上制约了建筑节能管理水平的有效提升。本项目借助数据驱动技术，从“能耗相关者”和“能耗信息”的视角入手，采用逆向分析的手段研究建筑全生命周期中能耗差异的形成原因，深入研究能耗相关者属性、行为与决策准则，以及能耗信息的传递、沟通与理解，厘清能耗信息完整性及能耗相关者相互影响与能耗差异的路径关系。在此基础之上，构建能耗系统模型，探讨能耗差异的负向演化规律，进而提出缩减能耗差异的策略与措施并验证其合理性和有效性。研究成果不仅能充实现有建筑节能管理理论，也能促进建筑节能管理水平的有效提升。

预测的建筑能效与实际的建筑能效之间的巨大差异阻碍了建筑能源管理的有效性。经文献回顾发现，建筑能源利益相关者和能耗信息是建筑能效差异的重要影响因素。利益相关者数量众多，彼此之间存在复杂的交互关系；建筑能耗数据信息庞杂，其质量参差不齐。然而，鲜有学者深入探讨这两者对建筑能效差异的影响。因此，本研究旨在研究利益相关者互动机制对建筑能效差异的影响和能耗数据挖掘技术在建筑能源管理中的应用潜力。.本项目首先通过文献综述总结了建筑能效差异和建筑能耗数据挖掘研究现状，并设计出了居住者能源行为领域研究的混合方法框架。其次，采用解释结构模型探究了建筑能效差异的关键影响因素及其相互作用关系。接着，基于演化博弈模型分析了利益相关者之间在不同场景下的合作决策机制，并通过建立系统动力学和代理人基模型相结合的混合动态模型模拟了利益相关者之间的动态交互作用对建筑能效差异的影响。项目团队还深入探究了最终用户特征及其行为对建筑能耗的影响，以及用户节能行为的作用机理。同时，课题组开发与验证了各种数据挖掘技术在建筑故障检测与诊断、建筑能耗预测和全生命周期控制优化方面的应用价值。最后，课题组从“能源利益相关者互动”和“能耗信息管理”视角提出了应对建筑能效差异的策略并验证了其合理性和有效性。.研究成果不仅能充实现有建筑节能管理理论，也能有效促进建筑节能管理水平的提升。以本基金项目为依托，课题组已在国内外期刊和国际会议上发表多篇SCI/SSCI和EI论文，另有2篇论文在评审和修改中。