北太平洋多年代际振荡（PMO）对亚太区域年际和年代际气候变化的影响

The inter-decadal shift of climate is often accompanied by abrupt changes in climate, the reason is very complicated, which has always been a hot and difficult point in the field of climate change research. In the previous studies, most of the inter-decadal variability of climate in the Asia-Pacific region has been attributed to the change of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) phase, but still a lot of phenomena cannot explain. As a new inter-decadal mode, the recently proposed North Pacific Multi-decadal Oscillation (PMO) has its own unique characteristics, which can give a good answer to some inter-decadal shift that cannot be explained in previous. However, the specific impact of PMO on the climate change in Asia-Pacific region is not clear and further research is needed. This project focuses on the two time scales of inter-annual and inter-decadal, and studies the impact of PMO on the Asia-Pacific climate and its possible physical mechanism and compares it with the impact of PDO and AMO. The project will deepen the understanding of inter-annual and inter-decadal interactions between the PMO and the climate systems in the Asia-Pacific region, and the results will help to further improve the prediction of climate change in the Asia-Pacific region.

气候年代际转变的发生往往伴随着气候的急剧变化，其原因极其复杂，一直是气候变化研究领域的热点和难点。前人研究中，亚太区域气候年代际变化的原因多归结于PDO和AMO位相的转变，但仍然存在很多无法解释的现象。新近提出的北太平洋多年代际海温模态PMO作为一个新的多年代际模态，有其独特的特征，对年代际变化方面不能解释的一些问题能给予合理解释。但PMO对亚太地区气候变化年际‒年代际尺度上的具体影响尚不清楚，亟需进一步的研究。本项目聚焦年际和年代际两个时间尺度，拟研究PMO对亚太气候的影响及其可能的物理机制，并与PDO和AMO的影响进行对比。研究结果将对深入认识PMO影响亚太区域年际‒年代际气候变化具有重要意义，并为亚太地区气候年代际改变成因提供新视角，相关结果将有助于进一步提高亚太区域气候变化的预测水平。

气候年代际一直是气候变化研究领域的热点和难点问题，由于气候年代际转变往往伴随着气候的急剧变化，对人民生活和社会经济都有着重大影响，且其变化机理极其复杂，因此，亟需进一步的研究来厘清其中的物理过程。本项目在前人研究的基础上，从新近提出的北太平洋多年代际海温模态PMO出发，研究了PMO对亚太地区气候变化年际和年代际变化的影响及其物理机制，并与以往研究进行对比分析，解释了以往研究中无法解释的气候年代际转变现象。发现PMO不同位相，不仅可以直接导致冬季东亚大槽和阿留申低压发生年代际变化，而且可以调制AO和ENSO与东亚冬季风的关系；揭示了AO和ENSO在PMO正负不同位相对东亚冬季风的交替影响及机理。在此基础上还分析了PMO对后期气候的滞后影响。这些结果对于加深对亚太地区气候年代际变化的理解，并改进东亚气候预测提供了重要的科学支撑。