线上线下混合舆情的演化模型及应用研究

Managing the public opinions has been a key problem for the Chinese government at different levels and relevant departments. The emergence of opinion dynamics provides the support for modeling the public opinions. The existing studies mainly discuss from the perspective of the single evolution environment of public opinions. However, the practical public opinions are generated and changed dynamics in a online-offline hybrid environment. On the basis of analyzing the practical characteristics of the evolution environment of online-offline hybrid public opinions, this project proposes the communication regime and evolution model by combining the basic assumptions regarding the social network and bounded confidence. Next, the features, theoretical conditions and convergence speeds of forming the consensus, polarization and fragmentation in the online-offline hybrid public opinion dynamics are analyzed. Meanwhile, we extend our proposal in the situation of expressing uncertain opinions to reflect more practical situations. The research results can not only improve the existing opinion dynamics, but also provide a decision support to assess the public opinions and identify the crisis public opinions in managing the public opinion.

舆情管理已经成为中国各级政府和相关部门面临的重要课题。舆情动力学的出现，为舆情管理提供了建模支撑。现有的舆情动力学研究大多从单一舆情演化环境的角度进行探讨。然而，现实舆情往往在线上线下混合环境中产生且动态演变。本项目针对于此，在分析线上线下混合舆情演化环境的现实特点的基础上，结合社会网络、边界信任等基本假设，建立线上线下混合舆情的通信机制与演化模型，进而分析线上线下混合舆情演化到共识、极化或分裂等稳定结构的特征、理论条件和收敛速度。同时，结合舆情演化中的观点不确定，研究观点不确定下混合舆情的演化模型与稳定结构，使得对舆情演化的研究更贴近于现实情景。研究结果不仅丰富和完善现有舆情动力学的理论与方法，也能为实际舆情管理中的舆情研判分析和危机舆情识别提供决策支持。

在中国情景下，舆情管理日益受到重视。舆情动力学为舆情管理提供了理论建模支撑。已有的舆情动力学研究大多从单一舆情演化环境的角度进行探讨。然而，现实舆情往往在线上线下混合环境中产生且动态演变。本项目以线上线下混合舆情演化问题为出发点，围绕以下问题展开研究：（1）建立了线上线下混合舆情的通信机制与演化模型；（2）分析了混合舆情演化的稳定结构及规律；（3）理论结果的应用。首先，建立了考虑异步演化的线上线下舆情演化模型、考虑认知失调行为的舆情演化模型和考虑虚伪交互和异步信任的舆情演化模型。然后，分析了精确观点和不确定观点演化的稳定结构及规律。最后，讨论了理论模型在微信交互中的应用。提出了详细的仿真实验，其结果显示了所提出方法的有效性。