线上线下舆情异步演化与协同治理研究

Governing public opinion has been a key problem for the government and relevant departments in China. The emergence of opinion dynamics provides the support for modeling the public opinion. With the rapid development and growing popularity of the Internet, the public opinion is generated and changed dynamics in an online-offline environment. Improper governance of public opinion will lead to intensifying social contradictions and trigger social events. On the basis of refining the characteristics of the contexts of online and offline, this project proposes the asynchronous public opinion dynamics with online and offline interactions by combining the basic assumptions regarding the social network and bounded confidence. And then investigates how the size of online agents, the degree of asynchronization, the structure of social network and the “Internet Army” affects public opinion evolution. Meanwhile, studies the relationships among the multiple subjects and puts forward the cooperative strategy in public opinion governance. The project extracts the current state of opinion dynamics research and combines the real need of governing the public opinion in China. Finally, we apply the research results to assess the public opinion, identify the critical public opinion, policy analysis and collaborative governance, which can provide a decision support to govern the public opinion.

舆情治理已经成为中国各级政府和相关部门面临的重要课题。舆情动力学的出现为舆情研究提供了建模支撑，然而伴随着互联网的迅猛发展及不断普及，舆情往往在线上线下环境中产生且动态演变，因此舆情治理不当会成为激化社会矛盾、酿成重大社会事件的导火索。本项目针对于此，在提炼线上线下舆情演化环境的不同特点基础上，结合社会网络、边界信任等基本假设，建立线上线下舆情演化的交互机制与异步演化动力学模型，进而研究线上个体规模、线上线下舆情演化的异步程度、社会网络拓扑结构及线上网络水军对线上线下舆情演化的影响。同时，研究舆情治理中多元主体之间的关系，提出舆情协同治理策略。本项目把握当前舆情动力学的研究现状，同时结合具有中国对舆情治理的现实需求，研究结果不仅丰富和完善现有舆情动力学的理论与方法，也能为实际舆情治理中舆情研判，危机舆情识别，舆情治理政策分析和舆情协同治理等决策支持。

舆情治理已经成为中国各级政府和相关部门面临的重要课题。舆情动力学的出现为舆情研究提供了建模支撑，然而伴随着互联网的迅猛发展及不断普及，舆情往往在线上线下环境中产生且动态演变，因此舆情治理不当会成为激化社会矛盾、酿成重大社会事件的导火索。本项目以人际影响构成的社会网络为背景，以线上线下环境为视角，围绕线上线下舆情同步/异步演化与协同治理问题展开研究：（1）分析了社会网络背景下舆情演化的影响要素；（2）考虑线上线下环境中个体交互的差异，建立线上线下舆情同步/异步模型，分析了舆情演化的影响因素；（3）进一步考虑网络水军是在线上线下环境中如何影响舆情演化结果；（4）考虑舆情演化的生命周期，构建多元主体协同动态关系网，线上线下联动共同实现舆情治理。研究结果不仅丰富和完善现有舆情动力学的理论与方法，也能为实际舆情治理中舆情研判，危机舆情识别，舆情治理政策分析和舆情协同治理等决策支持。