反贫困视角下生态移民政策的农户响应及经济效应研究 ——以陕西省南部地区为例

Achieving the dual goals of the environmental protection and anti-poverty for ecological immigration policy is an important issue in public management research that need to be addressed, especially, the mechanism of ecological migration on anti-poverty and environment is a major scientific problem and the key to the theory bottleneck breakthrough . Based on the microcosmic perspective of the anti-poverty movement and the maximum benefits of peasant household, this study will compare the different ecological migration policy and implement a field investigation at the rural-level in the south of Shaanxi Province, including 1614 peasant household samples which belong to 54 villages of 20 towns in 10 counties from 2008-2016. By using the time series data gained through the field investigation, this study will adopt the fixed effect model, first order differential model, logistic model and Shapley value decomposition method to analyze the structure of peasant's income, livelihood capital, and income distribution of the migrators. Furthermore, this study will illuminate the responding of the peasant household after implementing the ecological migration policy, and the impact of the ecological migration policy on peasant's income. Meantime, this study will try to construct an index system to evaluating the effect of the anti-poverty movement in rural areas of China, and then calculate the targeting efficiency and poverty reduction of the ecological migration policy in rural areas. At last, this study will propose the suggestions about how to guarantee the sustainable development of the ecological migrators, and make a theoretical foundation for the implementation of ecological migration in the south area of Shaanxi Province.

实现生态移民政策环境保护和反贫困双重目标是公共管理研究亟待解决的重要课题，尤其是究明生态移民与反贫困和环境之间的内在作用机理是重大的科学问题及突破理论瓶颈的关键所在。本项目基于反贫困视角，以微观农户利益最大化为出发点，运用Logistic模型探索农户对生态移民政策的行为响应机理及移民意愿影响因素；采用固定效应估计、一阶差分估计（First Order Differential）及夏普里值分解法（Shapley Value）等模型测算生态移民政策对农户的经济效应并揭示农户收入及其结构的变动规律；运用Probit模型测算生态移民政策的贫困瞄准效率，构建反贫困效率评价机制。本项目的数据来源于陕西省南部地区10县54个村的1614户样本农户及所构建2008-2016年生态移民数据库，并运用访谈法为生态移民政策的实施积累详实的案例资料及实证分析结果，为保障生态移民可持续发展提供理论支撑和政策建议。

陕南移民政策是实现环境保护和反贫困双重目标的重要手段，究明移民政策与反贫困和环境之间的内在作用机理是重大的科学问题。本项目基于反贫困视角，以微观农户利益最大化为出发点，运用Logistic模型探索农户对移民政策的行为响应机理及移民意愿影响因素；采用固定效应估计、一阶差分估计及夏普里值分解法等模型测算移民政策对农户的经济效应并揭示农户收入及其结构的变动规律；运用Probit模型测算移民政策的贫困瞄准效率，构建反贫困效率评价机制。基于调研数据及案例分析发现，农户家庭特征、原有居住条件、社会压力是影响农户移民决策的主要因素；移民政策对家庭人均纯收入、人均外出务工收入及人均副业收入的净效应为正，对人均种植业收入和人均经济作物收入的净效应为负；农户的收入水平总体上有明显提高，移民农户收入的增长率要高于非移民户，且移民户在搬迁后的整体消费水平有很大提高，各项消费基本需求均有提升，边际消费倾向也略有提高；值得指出的是，生计资本水平较高的农户更容易被政府纳入到实施范畴当中，扶贫效果有限。截止2017年12月，课题组共采集陕南3市8县移民数据2207户（其中汉中市860户，安康市783户，商洛市564户），基本构建了陕南移民的基础数据库及案例库，调研数据涉及移民前，2012-2016年共6个年份，为陕南移民政策的各项研究提供了数据基础，并在多篇论文和报告中广泛使用，2015年余劲撰写的《陕南移民的成绩、问题与对策》获时任陕西省委书记赵正永、副省长庄长兴批示。本项目厘清了移民政策对反贫困及环境保护的作用机理，明确了农户的搬迁意愿、行为响应机理和收入总量及其结构的变动情况，能够更好地为指导移民政策提供理论基础和实践经验。因此，本项目不仅丰富和完善了移民搬迁问题的研究内容，也在保护生态环境的前提下为解决连片深度贫困地区贫困问题提供了很好的借鉴。