“一带一路”贸易网络演化对沿线国家经济合作格局的影响机理及其优化路径

Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants' shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is not only China's new action to drive its open and global development, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trading system. On the other hand, there has been a decline of the ‘Flying Geese Model’ since the early 2000s, as a result of the full-blown recession of Japan and Asian ‘four little dragons’, and the rising of China. It is under this background, that the potential impact of China’s BRI on the Asian regional economic cooperation pattern has become a hot topic. It is therefore important to examine the topological structure of the BRI trade network and its impact on regional economic cooperation pattern. More specifically, this project is try to figure out whether the regional economic cooperation along BRI has evoluted into a new pattern, which view China as the core. First, this project analyzes the spatial characteristics and the community structure of BRI trade network using community detection algorithm and visualization methods, and estimates the topological relationship between BRI trade network and global trade network. Second, this project calculates the impact of trade cooperation between BRI countries on the increase of their export added value based on transnational input-output model, in order to find out the main trade partner of BRI countries. Third, this project focuses on evolution of the BRI trade group with China as the core(China Trade Group below) , and calculates the impact of China Trade Group on BRI regional economic cooperation pattern. Most important, we try to estimate whether the regional economic cooperation with China as the core has been founded. Fourth, we try to estimate the implication mechanisms of the impact of BRI trade on regional economic cooperation pattern, based on both qualitative analysis and quantitative model, and then find out the optimization path.

近年来，中国的快速崛起以及“一带一路”建设取得的显著进展，对全球经济增长和区域经济合作格局产生了重大影响，特别是对东亚传统的“雁行模式”学说提出了巨大的挑战。“一带一路”倡议正在成为世界上越来越多国家共同探索国际经济治理新机制的一个平台；贸易畅通是其关键内容和核心环节，也是研究区域经济合作格局的重要抓手。在此态势下，本项目充分关注“贸易”这个核心环节，刻画“一带一路”贸易网络的演化格局，分析“一带一路”贸易对沿线国家出口增加值的贡献率，剖析中国贸易组团的演化及其对区域经济合作格局的影响，从而解析“一带一路”沿线地区是否已经逐渐形成以中国为核心的区域经济合作格局；并基于空间建模和情景模拟，研究提出“一带一路”贸易合作及区域经济合作的优化路径。以期为推动“一带一路”建设、促进沿线国家经济繁荣与区域合作提供科学支撑，并在学术上丰富经济地理、区域发展、“一带一路”相关研究。

贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的关键内容和核心环节，也是研究区域经济合作格局的重要手段。本项目从贸易入手，基于大量的数据搜集、整理与分析，刻画了“一带一路”贸易网络演化的时空格局；构建跨国投入产出模型，剖析了“一带一路”贸易合作对沿线国家的经济拉动、对沿线国家出口增加值的贡献率；研究了中国贸易组团的演化及其对区域经济合作格局的影响，探讨“一带一路”沿线地区是否逐渐形成以中国为核心的区域经济合作格局；分析了“一带一路”贸易网络对沿线国家经济合作格局的影响机制，特别是“一带一路”贸易合作的资源环境效应；在此基础上，研究提出“一带一路”贸易合作及区域经济合作的优化路径。基于项目研究，在国内外学术刊物上发表文章16篇，参加国内外学术会议35人次，培养相关方向的硕士研究生6名、博士研究生2名，为国家推动“一带一路”建设、促进贸易强国建设提供了科学支撑，并在学术上丰富经济地理、“一带一路”相关研究。