“指数保险与信贷互动”对农村金融市场发展的影响研究

Covariant risk associated with agriculture has significantly discouraged both agricultural insurance market and rural credit market, forcing farmers to forgo costly and risky opportunities for income growth. Under the background in which the government advocates developing modern agriculture through technology, we should transform agricultural production with new insurance policy and financial support. Theoretical studies show that a risk management tool based on interlinking between the index insurance and rural credit can reduce systematic risk effectively and boost the adoption of agricultural technology and the development of rural financial market. This prospective study is still in an exploratory phase.First,we will build a theoretical model to explain the working mechanism of interlinking between the index insurance and rural credit; Second, we will investigate risk structure and risk distrbution in agricultural areas of Jiangsu and Zhangjiang Province , evaluate the role that covariant risk plays in causing rationing on credit market and householders'' action and surplus. Last, We will design an integrated financial product of interlinked index insurance and credit contracts and test the impact of the contracts on the adoption of technology and the development of rural financial market. This project will provide a theorectical analytical framework and policy implications for how insurance companies design an optimal insurance contract and rural financial institutions design a credit contract based on index insurance and how governments at all levels spread agricultural technology and develop rural financial market.

农业生产风险导致我国农业保险市场和农村信贷市场面临双重约束，阻碍了农户应用农业技术提高风险收入的机会。在我国提出依赖科技发展现代农业的背景下，农户生产方式的转变需要保险和信贷的支持。本课题认为，作为一种有效的风险管理方式，指数保险与农村信贷互动能够有效降低系统性风险、推动农业技术应用和农村金融市场发展。本课题研究在国内外尚处在探索阶段。作为一项前瞻性研究，本课题首先分析指数保险与农村信贷互动效应的内在运行机理；其次，通过对江苏和浙江的调查，实证分析农户面临的风险结构、风险分布、讨论风险对农户决策行为的影响和农户福利的影响，分析农村信贷约束的影响因素及风险对信贷配置效率的影响；最后，设计指数保险合同和银保互动的信贷合同，预测银保互动效应对农村金融市场的影响。本课题研究成果将为我国银保互动实践提供理论分析框架和为我国深化农村金融市场改革提供决策依据。

长期以来，农业生产风险导致我国农业保险市场和农村信贷市场面临双重约束，阻碍了农户应用农业技术提高风险收入的机会。在我国提出依赖科技发展现代农业的背景下，农户生产方式的转变需要保险和信贷的支持。本项目从理论上分析了银保互动运行机理，借鉴Miranda模型分解系统性风险和个体风险，运用调查数据，测算了个体产量风险与区域产量系风险的相关性，模拟不同银保互动模式下农村金融机构信贷对农户收入波动的影响。本项目研究认为：农户行为与风险及银保互动的捆绑条件有关，银保互动模型的机制设计非常关键。实证结果显示：个人产量风险与区域产量风险存在高度相关性；相关系数越高，指数保险的保费率就越低于传统农业保险的保费率，有利于刺激指数保险的需求；不同信贷合约机制对农户收入波动产生不同效应。如果政府补偿保费、金融机构对获得保险的农户贷款利息降低或抵押条件放松，则将诱导更多的农户选择新技术，农户在选择新技术后将更多地选择银保互动的贷款合同；通过1:1配对Logistic回归模型拟合发现，选择银保互动机制的农户采用新技术的可能性是不选择农户的2.969倍；本项目达到了预期目标，对我国银行互动发展进行了有益探索。