雅砻江流域流量传播规律和来水预报及梯级电站优化调控与风险决策研究

The inflow uncertainty is caused by the variation of hydrological response, runoff and flow process under climate change and human activities in Yalong River Basin. It brings out such a tricky issue that it is difficult to implement the safe and economic operation of cascade hydropower stations. Therefore, the multidimensional spatiotemporal flow movement regularity in river and the characteristics of flow propagation in different magnitude between hydropower stations under the stress of water conservancy project are studied. The dynamic response mechanisms of flow movement to local inflow and reservoir operation are clarified. The chaotic dynamic characteristics and spatiotemporal evolution law of the complex nonlinear water circulation system in the Yalong River Basin are explored. The distributed coupled meteorological-hydrological inflow prediction theory driven by multisource heterogeneous data fusion and the hydraulics-hydrology coupled runoff forecasting models, which reflect the influence of operation of tributary reservoirs, are established. The self-adaption wide-area multi-model coupled comprehensive prediction theory and the correction system are developed. The flow process of key control sections under the influence of operation of tributary reservoirs and the change rules of capacity and water level of the annual regulation reservoirs are derived. The influence mechanism of hydropower stations in tributary on the safe and economic operation of the downstream hydropower stations in different typical years and multi time scales are revealed. Multi-objective coordinated optimal scheduling and benefit-risk equilibrium theory for cascade hydropower stations under the influence of tributary reservoirs are established. To achieve risk assessment and decision of multiple risk constraints and information fusion. The optimal regulation and risk decision of the safe and economic operation of cascade hydropower stations in Yalong River are implemented.

围绕雅砻江流域气候变化和人类活动影响下水文响应及径流和流量过程变异，导致来水不确定性严重影响梯级电站安全经济运行的关键科学问题，研究水利工程胁迫下多维时空尺度河道水流运动规律和电站间不同量级流量传播特性，阐明水流运动对区间来水和电站蓄控的动态响应机理；探明流域复杂非线性水循环系统混沌动力特性及时空演变规律，建立多源异构信息融合驱动的分布式陆-气耦合来水预报理论和反映支流电站蓄控影响的水力学-水文学耦合的区间径流预报模型，发展流域多模型自适应广域综合预报理论及耦合校正体系；推求支流电站蓄控影响下关键控制断面流量过程和年调节水库水位库容变化规律，揭示不同典型年多时间尺度支流电站运行对下游电站安全经济运行的影响机理，建立支流电站蓄控影响下梯级电站多目标协调优化调度及效益-风险均衡理论与方法，解决多重风险约束和信息融合的调度风险评估与决策难题，实现雅砻江梯级电站安全经济运行优化调控与风险决策。

雅砻江流域流量传播规律和来水预报及梯级电站优化调控与风险决策研究是水利科学与复杂性科学交叉发展的前沿问题之一。雅砻江流域梯级电站群联合蓄泄调度增大了水流运动时空耦合动力过程复杂性，使得水利工程胁迫下的径流逐步呈现破碎化趋势，改变了流量传播特性和气象水文过程动力演化规律与时空格局，严重影响了流域梯级电站安全经济运行。为此，项目聚焦雅砻江流域多维时空尺度水动力学建模、梯级电站区间来水非线性综合预报、梯级电站效益-风险均衡优化调度等关键科学问题，构建面向智能云服务平台的梯级电站安全经济运行应用示范系统，发展和丰富了水文水资源、水电能源与水信息科学等学科交叉领域的理论与方法体系。项目围绕雅砻江流域气候变化和人类活动影响下水文响应及径流和流量过程变异，导致来水不确定性严重影响梯级电站安全经济运行的关键科学问题，分别研究了水动力建模与径流传播规律、梯级电站区间来水非线性综合预报、梯级电站安全经济运行影响机理与效益-风险均衡优化调度以及梯级电站多源异构数据处理与多专业模型集成技术。研究提出了流域梯级电站间多维时空尺度水动力学建模及其高效解算新方法，解析了流域水文气象数据长期演变规律和趋势，发展了梯级电站安全经济运行影响机理与效益-风险均衡优化调度理论与方法研究，提出了梯级电站多源异构数据处理及多专业模型集成技术并搭建了示范系统服务集群化框架。项目搜集了总存储量超过10TB的气象、水文、发电、供水和需水数据资料。研究成果突破相关理论障碍和技术瓶颈，形成一套能够统筹雅砻江流域梯级电站间流量特性和传播规律、流域复杂非线性水循环系统内部要素的混沌动力特性及时空演变规律等多重影响因素的优化调控、风险决策理论与方法体系，不仅可解决雅砻江流域梯级电站安全经济运行面临的关键科学问题，而且还能提升我国在相关领域基础研究的创新能力，为提高我国梯级电站运行和管理水平提供重要的理论依据和技术支撑。