供水-发电-环境互馈的水资源耦合系统风险评估及径流适应性利用研究

The adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China southwest rivers is a kind of multi-objective collaborative optimization problem, in which multi-variables establish a complex dynamical system. The subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment compete in water utilization and influence each others, which result in hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. However, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization mainly focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. In this way, based on the theory of complex systems science, the changing trend of coupled water resource is studied, the covariant factor and driving mechanism is clarified, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process of the supply, generation and environment coupled system are explained, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system are revealed, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance is identified, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor is clarified, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory is established, on the basis of the research above, dynamic method balancing multiple-objectives' efficiency in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established, in this way, the project will develop and improve the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management in the source region of Southwest River under the varying environment of runoff, and it will greatly contribute to the development of academy and engineering.

西南河流源区径流适应性利用和调控是一类多随机变量耦合的复杂动力系统多维目标协同优化问题，供水、发电、环境竞争用水且相互作用和影响，导致水文过程变异、发电出力受阻和水环境安全风险，而多维目标协同优化研究的难点在于互馈关系的描述和适应性系统演化的动力学建模。为此，以复杂系统科学理论为基础，研究变化环境下西南河流源区水资源耦合系统动态演化特性和变化格局，探明耦合互馈系统协变因子和驱动机制，阐明供水-发电-环境耦合系统互馈动力过程及其动态演化规律，揭示水资源耦合互馈系统的环境响应与影响机理，辨识并描述影响互馈系统演化稳定和动态平衡的关键风险因子及多重风险耦合关系，提出耦合互馈系统多重风险评估和多属性决策方法，以此为基础，建立多重风险约束下水资源耦合互馈系统效益均衡的适应性调控模式，发展供水-发电-环境互馈的西南河流源区径流适应性利用与调控的理论与方法体系。研究工作具有重要的学术意义和工程应用价值。

西南河流源区供水-发电-环境耦合互馈系统的水资源开发和利用是水利科学与复杂性科学交叉发展的前沿问题之一。受全球气候变化和人类活动双重影响，长江上游供水、发电、环境竞争用水，水资源供需矛盾日益突显；系统交织着物质流、能量流与信息流的映射关系，且相互协调、彼此制约，静态耦合与动态协变并存，呈现多维耦合互馈特性。项目围绕我国长江上游供水-发电-环境耦合互馈系统的径流适应性利用与调控关键科学与技术问题，研究气候变化和人类活动双重影响下长江上游供水-发电-环境复杂水资源耦合系统动态演化格局、互馈协变关系、风险评估与决策、径流适应性利用与调控。研究揭示了变化环境下长江上游水资源耦合系统动态演化规律及其气象水文效应与环境响应，提出了供水-发电-环境互馈关系动力学建模与动态解析新方法，创建了供水-发电-环境互馈机制下流域及库群多重风险评估的理论与方法，发展了供水-发电-环境水资源耦合系统径流适应性利用与调控技术体系。研究成果重点探明并量化了不同风险置信水平下各子系统的效益-风险均衡关系及其期望和条件风险阈值，解决了互馈系统多重风险定量评估和径流适应性调控建模的难题，从提出概念发展到数理模型的建立，将研究范式从以极值为目标的确定性静态多目标优化发展到系统动力学多维互馈随机动态均衡优化。项目搜集了总存储量超过20TB的气象、水文、发电、供水、需水数据和遥感反演资料。部分成果在长江三峡梯调中心、金沙江调控中心、长江防汛抗旱办公室调度生产和澜沧江上游梯级电站规划中应用，效果显著。研究成果突破相关理论障碍和技术瓶颈，形成一套能够统筹长江上游供水-发电-环境耦合系统互馈协变关系、动态特性变化和环境响应等因素的适应性利用与调控理论与方法体系，不仅可为我国长江上游径流适应性利用提供科学指导，促进水资源系统优化配置，而且还能为其它复杂约束优化问题的模型描述开辟一条新途径。