水库群运行优化随机动力系统全特性建模的效益-风险均衡调度研究

The optimal operation of cascade reservoirs is a complicated stochastic dynamic optimization problem coupled with multiple stochastic variables. The stochastic variation of runoff and the drastic fluctuation of load would lead to serious lack of water storage and power generation, power output limitation and security risk in deterministic optimal operation. While the difficulty of dynamic optimization modeling lies in dynamic characteristic description and model expression under stochastic disturbance. Therefore, based on the complex dynamic system analysis theory, this project takes the mechanism of dynamic process response in optimization model under the stochastic disturbance and the mathematical description of multi- dimensional state space as breakthrough point, finally presents a modeling method of benefit-risk balance scheduling of multi-reservoir for full-characteristic modeling under stochastic optimization dynamic system. Firstly, it is necessary to study the dynamic process characteristics of runoff and load, to deepen the understanding of physical properties for forecasting runoff and load randomness, and further clarify the stochastic distribution of forecast error. Meanwhile, to reveal the parameter characteristics and structure evolution mechanism of the optimization model under stochastic disturbance, we analyze the non-stationary process and state transition rule of optimization model under the stochastic disturbance. Based on the above research, building the mapping relationship of discrete full-characteristic space surface between target domain and decision domain and rebuilding the output state trajectory of model. Simultaneously, representing the response regularity of key benefit and risk factor caused by the model in different confidence level. The research achievement will develop the modeling theory of multi-reservoir stochastic optimization, and is benefit for academic research and engineering applications.

流域梯级水库群优化调度是一类多随机变量耦合的复杂随机动态优化问题，径流随机变化和负荷剧烈波动，导致确定性优化调度运行存在严重欠蓄、欠发、出力受阻和安全风险，而动态优化建模难点在于随机扰动下动力学特性描述和模型表达。为此，以复杂动力系统分析理论为基础，以随机扰动下优化模型动力过程响应机理和多维状态空间数学描述为突破点，提出水库群随机优化动力系统全特性建模的效益-风险均衡调度建模方法。首先研究径流、负荷动力过程特性，认识径流、负荷随机性的物理性质，阐明预报误差要素随机分布规律；解析随机扰动下优化模型的非平稳过程和状态转移规律，揭示优化调度模型对随机过程响应的参数特征和结构演化机理；以此为基础，建立模型目标域和决策域离散化全特性空间曲面映射关系并重构模型输出状态轨迹，揭示不同置信水平下模型对关键效益和风险因子的响应规律。研究成果将发展水库群随机优化调度建模理论，具有重要的学术意义和工程应用价值。

流域梯级水库群优化调度是一类多随机变量耦合的复杂随机动态优化问题，径流随机变化和负荷剧烈波动，导致水库群非线性动力系统的运行存在欠蓄、欠发、出力受阻等安全风险，而动态优化建模难点在于随机扰动下系统的动力学特性描述和模型表达。为此，以复杂动力系统分析理论为基础，以随机扰动下优化模型动力过程响应机理和多维状态空间数学描述为突破点，开展了径流、负荷非线性预测及预报误差随机过程模糊辨识研究，提出了不确定条件下水库群随机动态优化调度模型动力学特性描述的新方法，建立了基于动力学原理的水库群随机扰动全特性状态空间模型，创建了水库群随机优化动力系统全特性建模理论和效益-风险均衡调度方法体系。通过流域径流、电网负荷动力过程特性分析，揭示了径流、负荷随机性的基本物理性质，阐明了各要素预报误差的随机分布规律；解析了随机扰动环境下优化调度模型的非平稳过程和状态转移规律，发展了水库群随机动态优化调度建模的系统动力学描述方法；建立了流域水文过程变化和电网负荷波动以及梯级水库群水文补偿、水力补偿、库容补偿和电力补偿耦合效应作用下水库群随机扰动全特性状态空间模型，探明了随机扰动对水库群优化建模影响的作用机理；提出了水库群非线性动力系统全特性效益-风险均衡优化调度建模的数学描述方法，揭示了不同置信水平下联合调度方案对关键风险因子变化的响应规律，突破了多重风险约束下效益-风险均衡优化决策的理论瓶颈，发展了水库群非线性动力系统均衡优化调度的理论与方法体系。研究工作不仅可为解决长期以来工程应用中制约水库群优化调度理论应用的瓶颈问题提供新的理论基础，而且还可为随机优化调度理论的发展与创新研究提供新的途径。