雅砻江流域梯级风光水多能互补协调控制与调度策略研究

With the implementation of the 13th Five-Year plan, the wind-solar-hydropower generation in Yalong river basin characterized by giant hydropower stations and Southwest China, has come to unprecedented progress. The mass commissioning of wind and solar power bring enormous difficulty in power consumption and peak load regulation of power system due to the stochasticity, intermittency and volatility.Therefore,directly related to the safety and economy of cascade hydropower stations, wind stations and power system operation, it has become a new challenge for hydro and electric power science of China or even of the world that to build combined dispatching model, coordination control and dispatching strategies and efficient solving algorithms for wind, solar and hydropower stations, which is also essential to exploit the dominate adjustment advantages of giant cascade hydropower stations in the power system, to absorb new energy sources, to optimize the peak load regulation of electricity grid and to improve power quality.By takingcoordination controland peak load regulation as the main clue, this paper combines the feature of giant cascade hydropower stations and makes research from the following aspects:(1) The coordination controland operation strategies of wind, solar and hydropowerdrovebygiant cascade hydropower stations.(2)Themodel of short-termpeak load regulation in the cooperation of wind, solar and hydropower by considering water time delay and sensitivity of upstream and downstream of the cascade hydropower stations.(3) Dimensionality reduction optimization methods for large scale wind, solar and hydropower system and its parallelization strategy.Through the above research, the paper aims to provide scientific method and key technology support for the optimal joint scheduling of large scale wind, solar and hydropower system for the Yalong river basin and Southwest China.

随着十三五规划的实施，以巨型水电站为主要特征的雅砻江流域风光水电得到空前发展。以间歇性、随机性、波动性甚至反调峰为显著特点的大规模风光电投产后给风光水多能互补协调控制和调度带来巨大的困难。如何构建风光水电协调控制策略、联合调度模型及高效求解算法，发挥巨型梯级水电站群的主导调节优势，充分吸纳新能源，实现电网优化调峰，改善电源质量，直接关系到梯级库群、风光水电站及电网的安全经济运行，是我国乃至世界水电及电力能源科学全新挑战。以协调控制和联合调峰为主线，结合巨型梯级水电站群的特点，从以下方面开展问题研究：（1）巨型梯级水电站群驱动的风光水电协调控制与调度策略；（2）考虑梯级电站流量滞时及上下游灵敏度的短期风光水电联合调峰模型；（3）大规模风光水电协调优化降维求解方法及并行计算策略。通过上述问题研究，旨在为雅砻江流域及我国西南地区大规模风光水电协调控制及联合调度提供科学理论的方法和关键技术支持。

随着“清洁低碳、安全高效”能源政策的不断深入，风光等清洁能源迅猛投产，以间歇性、随机性、波动性甚至反调峰为显著特点在大规模风光电投产后给风光水多能互补协调控制和调度带来巨大的困难。如何构建风光水电协调控制模型、联合调度策略及高效求解算法，发挥巨型梯级水电站群的主导调节优势，充分吸纳新能源，实现电网优化调峰，改善电源质量，直接关系到梯级库群、风光电站及电网的安全经济运行。以协调调度和联合调峰为主线，结合我国西南地区巨型梯级水电站群的特点，从径流预测、一库多级式调度、一洞多机电站负荷分配及并行计算求解等方面进行了深入研究，取得了如下成果：（1）提出了考虑气象信息的入库流量预测及风功率预测方法。构建了一种考虑欧洲气象预报信息的径流预报框架，实现水电站多步预见期的来水预报，框架通过最大互信息策略挖掘气象信息中包含的多步预见期信息，为径流预报提供气象信息维度的输入，接着采用GBRT方法训练预报模型，确定预报模型的各个参数；（2）提出了两阶段一洞多机引水式水电站短期调度方法。第一阶段建立考虑持续时间约束的水电机组开停机优化模型，并应用逐步优化算法结合启发式算法求解最优开机组合方式；第二阶段建立以电定水准则的负荷分配模型，采用动态规划进行固定机组间的负荷最优分配；（3）提出了峰谷时段模糊识别的梯级水电站群驱动下的风光水短期联合调峰方法。以承担调峰任务的一库多级式梯级水电站群为研究对象，提出“峰谷时段”模糊识别的短期计划快速生成方法，以合理安排上下游电站发电计划、平衡调峰及蓄能的关系、解决数学规划方法时效性不强的问题；(4) 提出了水电主调模式下的水火风短期联合调度并行计算策略。结合云平台的并行计算技术研究了风光水电离散状态空间内的细粒度并行计算方式。通过上述问题研究，旨在为我国西南地区大规模风光水电协调控制及联合调度提供科学理论的方法和关键技术支持。