基于SD的区域水土资源复合系统保障风险评估及其综合防范调控机制研究

Aiming at neglect of coupling between resources, mismatch of risk characteristics regionality, deficiency of index quantification dynamics and lack of key steps during economic loss evaluation in current studies on water and land resources risk assessment, the security risk assessment and governance of regional water and land resources composite system will be researched by using system dynamics as the core technique and taking Heilongjiang province as study area. Firstly, dynamic simulation model of water and land resources composite system will be built based on the analysis of system structure and coupling mechanism, and be used to identify the security risk characteristics of composite system. Secondly, measure index system of the danger of risk-causing subjects, the vulnerability of risk-bearing system and the risk economic conditionality, and comprehensive evaluation model of security risk will be constructed for estimating risk happening probability, influence degree, economic loss, etc. Finally, spatial-temporal evolution patterns of security risk characteristics will be analyzed to recognize regulating object of integrated governance, and the best strategy with powerful security ability, high benefit, low risk and safe ecology for integrated governance of water and land resources composite system will be ascertained by formulating strategies set for risk governance, regulating and optimizing technical indexes of risk integrated governance. The research results have important theoretical and practical significances to crack difficult problems in risk assessment of water and land resources composite system, to complete resources integrated risk governance theory and to realize efficient utilization of regional water and land resources and sustainable development of social economy.

针对目前水、土资源风险评估研究中资源耦合性的忽视、风险特征区域性的错位、指标量化动态性的不足、经济损失评估关键步骤的缺失等问题，以系统动力学为核心技术，以黑龙江省为研究区域，开展区域水土资源复合系统保障风险评估及其防范研究。首先分析复合系统结构和耦合机制，构建水土资源复合系统仿真模型，识别复合系统保障风险特征；其次构建致险主体危险性、承险系统脆弱性和风险经济制约性测度指标体系，建立保障风险综合评价模型，评估保障风险的发生概率、影响程度和经济损失等；最后剖析保障风险属性时空演变规律，识别保障风险综合防范调控对象，制定风险防范策略集，调控和优化风险防范技术指标，确定水土资源复合系统保障力强、高效益、低风险和生态安全的综合防范最佳策略。研究成果对于破解水土资源复合系统风险评估难题、完善资源综合风险防范理论、实现区域水土资源高效利用和社会经济可持续发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。

为了解决水、土资源风险评估研究中资源耦合性的忽视、风险特征区域性的错位、指标量化动态性的不足、经济损失评估关键步骤的缺失等问题，项目以系统动力学为核心技术，以黑龙江省为研究区域，开展了区域水土资源复合系统保障风险评估及其防范研究。.首先，为了充分了解黑龙江省水土资源的利用现状、保障能力和系统协调程度，开展了水土资源短缺及利用效率评价、水土资源约束对粮食增产的保障力评价和水土资源保障系统耦合协同有序性评价；研究结果显示黑龙江省水土资源将面临生态风险、短缺风险、匹配失衡、利用效率低下和系统协调性差等多种问题，若不改善现有的资源利用和管理模式，黑龙江省将面临不可避免的水土资源保障风险。其次，结合系统动力学仿真技术，以解决区域水土资源利用问题为目标，构建由人口子系统、水资源子系统、土地子系统及经济子系统组成的黑龙江省水土资源保障系统仿真模型，仿真结果显示区域水土资源对社会经济发展和粮食生产保障程度较低。再次，利用HHM与RFRM理论识别黑龙江省水土资源系统保障风险指标，采用EBM与Tobit方法确定水土资源系统保障风险经济损失为3896.1亿元，利用可变模糊集和熵权评价方法确定保障风险程度在Ⅱ-Ⅲ级之间波动。最后，利用SD的调控技术和CVaR理论，开展黑龙江省水土资源保障风险综合防范方案优选和风险管理，最终提出社会可接受的保障风险大小、经济收益和应对水土资源系统保障风险的策略，以此实现水土资源系统保障风险的定量评价和管理，为黑龙江省水资源的可持续利用提供政策支持。.研究成果对于破解水土资源复合系统风险评估难题、完善资源综合风险防范理论、实现区域水土资源高效利用和社会经济可持续发展具有重要的理论与现实意义。